The Wrap Up

The one advantage of playing the 3^rd and deciding game of the ABL Grand Final series at 12pm (West Coast time) is that when you win, you can get a solid 6-8 hours of partying under your belt compared to a regular 7pm start! You can rest assured that the Perth Heat will be tilting numerous cold ones right about now as they celebrate their resounding win against the Adelaide Bite in the inaugural ABL season. As per the rest of the series, let the Defensive Specialist highlight a couple of key points:

• You can bet ABL coaches around the country will be scouring the local competitions looking for the next Trevor Caugheys and Ben Moores. We discussed Caughey yesterday and we need to pour out some ink on his teammate who took the hill in game 3 and submitted a complete game, 10 strikeout performance to lead his team to the Championship. Aside from a 9^th inning blast from Stefan Welch, Moore was in complete command surrendering only 4 hits (1 was a can of corn pop-up that second baseman Luke Hughes should have caught). The performances of Moore and Caughey highlight the kind of talent floating around in local leagues and demonstrate how club teams have thrown their support behind the ABL by allowing the talent that they’ve bankrolled to participate.

• Moore needs more than one paragraph! the righty befuddled the Bite with his funky ¾ delivery, Frisbee slider and roadrunner change up that had good hitters utterly confounded (see Latimore, Quincy as the prime example). Moore’s ability to get ahead and throw any pitch in any count proved to be the difference as he quieted a fearful lineup that beat up numerous pitchers throughout the season.

• The Heat managed to get on top of yet another team in the fifth inning, this time putting Paul Mildren to the sword (who was on a short leash in game 3  as Manager Harris could not afford to let the game get out of hand). Mitch Graham was extremely lucky with 2 strikes as he took a fastball down and in that could very easily have been strike 3. Mildren bounded off the mound expecting to get the call. The very next pitch Graham drove a 2 run double into the right centre gap to put the Heat ahead. As Al Pacino said in “On Any Given Sunday” – it’s all about inches!

• Luke Hughes must have something going on with the official scorers because he was credited with a double in the bottom of the 8^th when he singled to centre fielder James McOwen. Tim Kennelly running on second base was waved home by manager Brooke Knight on Hughes’ ground ball up the middle.  McOwen’s throw was cash money but Kennelly executed an outstanding slide that saw him hook his foot around to touch the plate ahead of the sweeping tag (that actually missed making contact). Hughes being smarter than your average bear continued around first and cruised into second base. A very intelligent piece of base running but not something worthy of a double. 

• Kudos to umpire Brett Robson who got the bang bang call just right in signaling Kennelly safe at the plate. 

• Robbie Widlansky took some almighty hacks all series and finally brought the thunder in the 8^th inning as he blasted a Darren Fidge fastball out to centrefield. Widlansky is best described as a professional hitter for 2 reasons 1) he swings it pretty good and 2) he is a butcher defensively as evidenced by the fly ball that he dropped in left field.  Interestingly though, Widlansky’s ball would have been a long out 2 years ago – when the decision was made to bring the fences in by about 40 feet in centrefield. The shed viewers could see behind the centrefield wall actually sits inside where the old fence was. Talk about Death Valley. 

So we have our first champion in the new Australian Baseball League.  It’s been an interesting season and the Defensive Specialist has thoroughly enjoyed having baseball back on the big stage. For all the skepticism before the season commenced, it’s been a pretty solid product that can only continue to get better. While this sounds like the Defensive Specialist signing off for the offseason, do not fret – your old pal has a couple of rock star blog posts up his sleeve that will be sure to keep you engrossed for at least 15 minutes per week.

Well done to the Perth Heat – 2010 / 2011 ABL Champions

The Big Dance

So here we are, Grand Final week – the Big Dance! The Defensive Specialist finds himself sitting in a New Zealand hotel pouring over line ups, statistics, scouting reports and tea leaves trying to find an edge. Of course both managers (Knight & Harris) have desperately sought the Defensive Specialist’s insight which has made a business trip to our neighbour timely as it would be unfair to assist one team over another. Buoyed by the successful series prediction last week (don’t kid yourself, your old pal was concerned after David Welch tossed a no no), the Defensive Specialist is ready to break down the series and spell out a winner for one more time this season.

 

With the series going live to air on cable television, it’s a big weekend for the ABL and baseball in general and nothing would be better than an action packed contest that stretches over 3 games. Both teams have a legitimate shot at the title and in a move away from the norm, both teams would be considered offensive ball clubs first and foremost. Following on from last week’s winning formula, let’s take a look at what factors could win or lose it for each team:

 

Why Perth will lose

 

2 weeks off without baseball is never a good thing! The inactivity will allow the pitching staff to freshen up but the last thing a highly functioning offense wants is a lengthy break – and in baseball 10 days is an eternity. You can play all the simulated games and two pitch you want but the best way to keep the bats hot is to swing them in anger. Manager Knight has to be anxious about the layoff and the effect it will have on his hitters timing. 1 through 9 the Heat line up had been popping and this break has the potential to put a number of the bats on ice. Sure a hitters may have found their way into local competition line ups but there is a significant difference in the sloppy seconds they’d be seeing down there from a pitching perspective and the higher level offerings they’ll see in the ABL

 

Why Adelaide will win

 

Momentum. We’ve discussed how powerful having the “MO” in your dugout can be and the Bite are riding a wave of it after taking it in the back passage in game 1 of the Preliminary finals and then storming back with 2 courageous wins to claim the series. Anytime you steal a 15 inning barn burner on the road you thank your lucky stars and look for your next challenge. Perth saw its own momentum stifled by a 2 week break and will need to get an early jump on the Bite to regenerate the buzz they built up after sweeping the Blue Sox on the road.

 

Why the Heat will win

 

They’re playing at home! Ok, that doesn’t guarantee the series win like you’d expect. The Heat were a .500 ballclub at their home park this season and decidedly better on the road. Earlier in the season, Manager Knight indicated that he liked his team on the road because they were free of the distractions and commitments generally associated with playing at home (work, study, family etc). Getting away as a unit is beneficial because the only focus is baseball. You’d like to think a thumping crowd plus a grand final series provides the edge that the Heat should have by being at home.

 

Why Adelaide will lose

 

Inconsistency around their pitching staff. Mark Brackman looked shakier than bambi on ice in game 1 of the preliminary finals which may have been a splash of bad luck or simply because his anus cramped under the bright lights of playoff baseball. The Adelaide trainer will be working around the clock to keep him loose so that the Bite doesn’t get a repeat performance. Brandon Maurer has evolved into the ‘sure thing’ for Manager Harris and it is somewhat surprising that he didn’t get bumped up to game 1. After these guys it looks like Paul Mildren gets the ball in game 3 but there is no certainty there.

Maurer has been a 'sure thing' for the Bite

Why Perth will lose

 

Uncertainty around their pitching staff. We know Daniel Schmidt will get the ball in game 1 and the lefty has shown that he deserves the honour. After him, it’s a bit of a crapshoot and you can be sure that Manager Knight has spent plenty of time this week calling local competition coaches asking if he can borrow their imports (Caughey & Zachary). Caughey has been a revelation for the Heat in limited appearances and if he is available Knight can then employ “Johnny Allstaff” to fill out game 3. If he isn’t available God only knows who gets the ball in game 2 which is a huge concern this late in the season.

Daniel Schmidt gets the ball in game 1

 

Why Adelaide will win

 

Because they bang! The Defensive Specialist knows that you shouldn’t start a sentence with because but it is as simple as that. Jeremy Cresswell, a rejuvenated Stefan Welch, Jamie McOwen, Quincy Latirmore, Brandon Bantz and Tom Brice give the Bite a legit 1-6. Cresswell works the count and grinds out AB’s, Welch is a nice 2 hole hitter who feasts on fastballs and McOwen, Latimore, Bantz and Brice provide the grunt. Not much in the way of a let up in that group which will definitely tax the Heat staff.

McOwen leads the Bite offensively

Why Perth will win

 

Because they bang harder! Based on end of season form, it’s safe to suggest that the Heat go 9 deep (which also sounds like the title of a porn film). The season numbers may not show it but a line up of:

 

1. Tim Kennelly
2. Alan De San Miguel
3. Luke Hughes
4. Robbie Widlansky
5. Evan McArthur
6. Ronnie Welty
7. Matt Kennelly
8. Lachlan Dale / Ryne Price
9. Mitch Graham



Luke Hughes needs to keep his eyes open and BANG

Is pretty damn solid and brings the noise! While the Bite line up drops away from 7 through 9, the Heat attack is unrelenting, especially with Graham finding form late in the season. Against the Adelaide pitching staff, the Heat offense could explode. 

 

So who is the this baseball brain putting his weight behind in the 2011 ABL Grand Final? The Defensive Specialist will be fidgeting in his first class international seat on the flight home tomorrow evening, eager to get in front of the television (pending a late call from ABL CEO Peter Wermuth asking for the Defensive Specialist’s expertise on the broadcast) to watch these two offensive minded ball clubs tee off on each other. When your old pal gazes into his crystal ball he sees the Heat taking game 1, Maurer maintaining his hot streak to guide the Bite to a victory in game 2 and the local boys rallying to win game 3. Perth Heat inaugural ABL champions!

 

Television Adds 10 Pounds

MLB commissioner Bud Selig must be reclining in his plush leather office chair, feet perched proudly on his desk as he thinks about the little old league he has running in some far fetched country called Austria / Armenia / Australia. After all, its had decent press throughout the season and as the competition has headed towards its conclusion we’ve seen some hard fought victories, a playoff no hitter and to wrap up the Sydney / Adelaide Preliminary final a 15 inning barn burner that had both teams selling their souls to the baseball gods for a victory. To make things even better in Bud’s world, the final series is being televised nationally! He can definitely check  “establish an MLB out posting in a foreign country” off his things to do list while commissioner of baseball.

It’s definitely an exciting time for Australian baseball and a buzz abounds with the final series being televised. However with national exposure comes a big stage to expose both the good and the bad that our sport has to offer in a time when getting buy-in is absolutely critical to the league’s viability and growth. The Defensive Specialist thought now would be a good time to consider a number of key points as the ABL and Foxtel get ready to package this product.

Are the ABL and Foxtel showcasing or educating?

There is a big difference between slickly packaging the broadcast and allowing the game to speak for itself, or running an ‘idiots guide to baseball”. Let the Defensive Specialist flesh this one out: 

• Showcasing the game – solid and informed commentary, slick camera work, timely replays and polished production (stats and packages) – think ESPN’s Sunday night baseball.
• Educating the masses – explaining the rules of the game, increased talking, basic information. More like a teaching the session, detailing every play. 

In the Defensive Specialist’s esteemed opinion, it’s difficult to do both well which is why you see cricket broadcasts do the ‘teaching’ bit during lunch breaks or in packages rather than trying to do so during the actual game. The ABL really has a 3 game trial with Foxtel and the viewing masses so it makes sense to put a polished package together that showcases the game rather than trying to bring people up to speed with the ins and outs of baseball. You’d have to think that the vast majority of people tuning in will be baseball fans, however Foxtel and the ABL will hope to catch the attention of casual viewers who may stumble across the broadcast. Surely these people don’t want to listen to commentators drone on about ‘tagging up’ and ‘how to grip a bat’ when there is a chance to see a well produced performance of baseball.

Peering into the future, perhaps next season the league could feature a weekly highlights type show – 30 minutes of action, interviews, top plays etc that grabs viewers attention. This could be supplemented with a game of the week (which would reduce cost by limiting the number of games broadcast) and then to bring the casual fan up to speed maybe even an educational type show that zeroes in on kids (although the Defensive Specialist believes that these would be better in cut down versions inserted into some form of pregame show).

Will the commentary be up to standard?

This really ties in to the above point regarding production. The Defensive Specialist hopes and prays that the commentary can be polished and informative rather than inane and pointless conversation that we’ve seen on other occasions. We’ve seen MLB bring out US expertise to assist in running the franchises and in game day preparation and it would be great to see some influence around commentary with well informed and educated people behind the microphones. A good broadcast team includes a play-by-play announcer who provides a running overview of the game and a colour man who contributes analysis and opinion. With other American sports played in Australia, we’ve seen numerous instances where the commentary team simply couldn’t provide a professional and interest-holding dialogue for the duration of the contest.

The great thing about baseball is that it’s timeless. The worst thing about baseball from a commentary perspective is that it’s timeless! What does this mean? Well because baseball can be somewhat on the slow side, commentators have to deftly fill time without becoming a talking head that fills up the space with words. The real art is letting the game speak for itself and using the words to fill the gaps (that was almost poetic in it’s beauty!).

It’s not easy broadcasting baseball!

Think about the experience you have when you watch an MLB game on Foxtel or ESPN. Multiple camera angles, immediate tracking of the action and almost instantaneous replays provide for an outstanding experience. In order to provide a close approximation of such an experience, you’d have to think that Foxtel will require at least 5 camera’s  (1 behind the pitcher, 1 behind the hitter, 1 behind first, 1 behind 3^rd and 1 on the field). You can see right there the cost associated with broadcasting baseball games, especially across a 3 or 4 game and why it’s a big deal if the league gets more games on air in coming seasons. It will be interesting to see how inexperienced camera operators and production crews (from a baseball perspective) handle the cut and thrust of a game. Can they get the broadcast in the right place at the right time?

What about the bells and whistles?

Being the first time the ABL has gone to air, will we get slickly produced player profiles, graphics and packages? If the ABL is aiming to showcase the product then you’d hope so. Baseball fans want to see averages and statistics. In order to promote the game, pre-packaged player features can be used adroitly to add value and launch local players into the public’s consciousness. A brief pregame show would be an interesting wrinkle and allow the BAL to show case local stars or leading baseball figures in Australia. The more effort that’s put in around these types of features, the better the product will be.

At the end of the day, if the ABL and Foxtel can put together an outstanding broadcast, the game will benefit. The ABL has a small window of opportunity to promote the game on a grand stage – lets hope that they’re able to do it right so that televised games become the norm rather than a bonus.

Wait til I get my money right

Things have gotten so bad that playoff team members and supporters have been writing in to Deep in the Hole asking the Defensive Specialist to pick against them in the playoffs because if things hold true to form they’ll end up winning. For a certified “expert” at picking horseflesh, you have to know that this run of bad form truly troubles the Defensive Specialist. Your old pal has spent countless hours evaluating the process:

• Rock solid analysis: CHECK
• In-depth research: CHECK
• Numerous hours of study: CHECK
• A healthy dose of gut instinct: CHECK

Baseball is one of those sports that can totally derail a player if he can’t ride the storm and keep his emotions in order. As you can imagine the Defensive Specialist is unwavering in his self-belief but still turned to a mentor to get an assessment of the state of play:

Defensive Specialist: “I’m concerned that my analysis is off the mark”

Mentor: “It’s not”

Defensive Specialist: “But I’ve faltered on numerous occasions this season”

Mentor: “You’ve got to keep swinging the bat my young apprentice”

Defensive Specialist: “I could be in a slump”

Mentor: “Stop that. In the words of the great Kanye West – Wait til you get your money right”.

And with that, the Defensive Specialist felt a sense of calm. If the Defensive Specialist keeps doing the hard yards, the universe will correct itself and the Defensive Specialist will be an unstoppable force once again.

With Adelaide visiting Sydney this weekend, let the Defensive Specialist channel Kanye and tell you why each team can win and lose this contest.

Why Sydney will win:

Starting pitching. The Defensive Specialist feels like a broken record having spoken about the combination of Oxspring, Welch, Lundgren and Anderson ad infinitum this season but the fact is, no team can line up 4 front line guys like them. Of course the spanner in the works here is that Oxspring has been pushed into the bullpen in an effort to prepare himself for spring training. His departure dents things somewhat for the Blue Sox but the vast majority of teams would take a three headed monster featuring Welch, Lundgren and Anderson. Welch really is the key this series as he presents the best chance of a win for the Blue Sox. His season has been flat out dominant and he has shown that he can lock down even the best hitting teams. Manager Glenn Williams will be counting on Welch getting a win and eating innings so that he can throw the rest of his staff at the Bite in games 2 and potentially 3.

David Welch

Why Adelaide will win:

Because they’ve got an edge and they’re hungry. The Bite are riding a solid wave of momentum after pounding Melbourne at home in the minor semi final and winning 7 of their last 8 games. Momentum can be a powerful force, especially during the playoffs (and if anyone doubts that, take a look at the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers who both ended up in the World Series despite being severe underdogs entering the playoffs). Numerous readers have commented that the Bite just appear determined and edgy. It’s obvious that they can taste a championship and will do what it takes to achieve that goal (and yes, don’t be surprised if we see some physical fireworks) which means we will see some boys selling out physically to win ball games which makes for compelling viewing.

Why Adelaide will win:

The Bite bang the ball around the yard. With James McOwen in the 3 hole and Quincy Latimore in the clean up position the Adelaide team has some serious punch. Stefan Welch finally seems to have found some form with the bat and with Jeremy Cresswell leading off, the Bite have runners on board in front of their boppers. Brandon Bantz and Tom Brice have both been hot of late which means the Adelaide line up is dangerous 1-6 at the very least.

A frequently occurring event for the Bite offensively

Why Sydney will lose:

They just can’t hit. Ok, that’s a bit hard but why beat around the bush? Mitch Denning got it going against Perth (4-7), which is absolutely critical to the cause but the Blue Sox need Alex Johnson supplying some thunder and more importantly Trent D’Antonio and Trent Schmutter have to find a way to get on base in front of these two. After the top four it’s all question marks although Brendan Kingman has managed to run into a couple of balls for clutch homeruns. If Dening or Johnson can be shut down, the Defensive Specialist doesn’t see anyone else shouldering the burden.

Holy white man line beard!

Why Adelaide will lose:

Inconsistency in the starting pitching. Brandon Maurer really found his groove late in the year and despite not having his best stuff in his first play off appearance still managed to punch out 8 in 6 innings while giving up 3 runs. Mark Brackman will take the ball in game 1 and the big man will need to replicate his performance against Melbourne, especially when you consider that he’s going up against the miserly Welch. Knowing that his opponent wont give up many, Brackman will need to be dialled in and prepared to keep the Blue Sox to 2 runs or less. After those two, Manager Tony Harris has a quandary – does he use Paul Mildren (who’s been buried on the shelf for 2 weeks after a poor outing against Brisbane on January 20^th) or Dushan Ruzic (who could be a weapon out of the pen, especially against righties) should a game 3 start eventuate? The Bite pitching has been up and down this season and the worse case scenario for their skipper is a bumpy outing from a starter that forces the pen into action early in the series.

Why Sydney will win:

Home field advantage! Ok, so that was a cheap shot. Aside from being swept in the first round of the playoffs at home, the crowd support was less than optimal with large sections of the seating area empty for game 1 last week. Adelaide reportedly had 3000 people at their 2^nd playoff game while Sydney struggled to crack 1000. Without rapid home support, the Adelaide momentum will be allowed to run unchecked.

Why Adelaide will lose:

Good pitching beats good hitting. If the Blue Sox staff performs at its expected level they’re a tough group of arms to contest.  Remember a few weeks back when the Blue Sox shut down the Bite in 4 games (granted Latimore and McOwen were missing). If the Bite can’t manufacture runs early and grind it out they’ll face a tough challenge offensively because Williams can employ the lights out and rubber armed Dae Song Koo to close things out.

Why Sydney will win:

They’re the regular season league leaders who pulled Adelaide’s pants down in their last meeting. The Blue Sox finished in first place for a reason and may relish the fact that they enter this series as underdogs with the vast majority of baseball fans jumping on the Bite bandwagon for this preliminary final. The underwhelming expectations for the team may lift some of the pressure and allow them to play better baseball. Stranger things have happened!

So does the Defensive Specialist have his money right? Adelaide momentum + big bats Vs Sydney pitching + home field advantage. In the Defensive Specialist’s esteemed opinion, Adelaide wants it too much and will take the series convincingly, setting up a grand final contest between the Heat and the Bite.

(Sydney fans now rejoice and start wagering heavily on their team to win!)