NO!

Under normal circumstances the Defensive Specialist would bang out this post on Saturday morning. Tonight wasn’t a normal circumstance.  How often do you get to witness a no hitter? More importantly, how often do you get to witness a no hitter during a playoff game (don’t answer that Phillie fans)?

Sitting at Blacktown Olympic Park it truly felt like the Defensive Specialist was inside a barbeque with all 4 burners on high heat. Seriously, it was ridiculously hot with stifling humidity to boot. Perhaps it was the weather but the crowd for a playoff game was once again disappointing with numerous empty seats along the third base line section of the stands. The conditions seemed to be taking a toll on the home side as well. They contributed one of the sloppiest pre games the Defensive Specialist had seen in a long time, which didn’t bode well.

Your old pal was left scratching his head at the wholesale changes that Manager Glenn Williams had made to his Blue Sox line-up. Gone was the uber hot January bat of Trent Schmutter, replaced with Moko Moanaroa. Gone was Mark Holland, replaced at second by Trent D’Antonio. Josh Dean was added to the line-up at third and rightfielder David Kandilas was promoted to the two-hole.  Drastic alterations like these are often deemed panic moves and not what you’d expect from a league leading team in a playoff series.

Fortunately the one constant all season for the Sydney team has been starting pitching and no one has been steadier than David Welch. The lefty had an outstanding season and was expected to shoulder the load for a Blue Sox team that just couldn’t find a way to manufacture any runs.

Mark Brackman was given the starting assignment for the Bite and things did not get off to the start he or his manager were hoping for. D’Antonio led off with a crisp single to centre which was followed by a Kandilas walk. Mitch Dening then took 35 seconds to stroll to the plate but wasted no time in punching a 2 run double down the left field line. Alex Johnson punched out and clearly demonstrated that he and sliders can never be in a serious relationship. Brendan Kingman and his bandaged together body dumped a fist shot into right to put runners on first and third for Dean who grounded out to short to score Dening.

3-0 Blue Sox.

The second inning provided no respite for Brackman as Michael Lysaught singled to right with one out and D’Antonio mashed a homerun to straight away rightfield. Kandilas grounded out and Dening picked up his second knock before Johnson made the final out of the inning

5-0 Blue Sox.

Brackman went out for the third and after a Kingman groundout he surrendered a singled to Dean and a walk to Moanaroa before he was lifted for Dushan Ruzic. Ruzic immediately gave up a scorched double to the right centre gap off the bat of Stone Hands Maat. Dean scored on the double while Moanaroa advanced to third. Lysaught grounded out with the infield in and D’Antonio picked up his third knock with a line drive to right that scored Moanaroa. Assuming that Maat would be waved home (he wasn’t) , D’Antonio continued to second. He would have been out easily if the Bite first baseman had cut the ball but by this stage the Bite’s wheels had well and truly fallen off.

7-0 Blue Sox.

Both pitchers settled into a groove and began working their way through the innings. The Defensive Specialists sent his first “Welch = dealing” text message during the 5^th inning and by the 6^th the Defensive Specialist had moved to the edge of his seat sensing that Welch was on the cusp of something special. The 7^th inning was interesting because there was  a noticeable drop in Welch’s velocity (the stadium radar gun made a welcomed return!) which obviously indicated that the veteran was tiring (not surprising considering that he may have sweated 15-20 litres of body fluid).

The Blue Sox crowd started to dial in on the occasion by the 8^th when Welch forced Josh Cakebread into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning.

The atmosphere in the park took on a whole new turn in the 9^th with Welch on the verge of a no no and the heart of the Adelaide line up at the plate. Jeremy Cresswell struck out to get things going. Stefan Welch then popped out to second. With Jamie McOwen striding to the dish, the crowd was on its feet. Welch managed to get McOwne flailing which resulted in a high chopper back to the mound. The pitcher leapt and snagged the ball as McOwen hustled down the line, desperate to break it up. Perhaps not realising he had more time or perhaps experiencing some severe sphincter tightness, Welch rushed himself and launched the ball down the line.

ERROR!

What should have been a routine final out to complete a no hitter all of a sudden became a farcical mistake that resulted in a runner on base and the big hitting righty Quincy Latimore at the dish. Welch was clearly running on empty as his fastball was now at 82 (he had it up to 88 earlier in the contest) and was almost solely reliant on his breaking ball. After falling behind 0-2, Welch pumped a slurve for a strike and then followed with another. With the count 2-2 he went to it again and Latimore pounced sending a towering fly ball to left that immediately sucked the sticky air out of the ballpark. Replacement leftfielder Trent Schmutter drifted back to the wall and the fans held their breath. And then all of a sudden the ball dropped from the sky into Schmutters glove on the warning track.

Game over – no hitter!

The Blue Sox mobbed their starter (who didn’t seem to know who to hug first - finally settling on his catcher Stone Hands) on the field, performing a very nice dog pile on the mound in celebration.

Obviously the Defensive Specialist Player of the Game goes to David Welch who not only tossed a complete game no hitter, but also racked up 10 strikeouts in a game that Sydney really had to have in order to get them off their recent schnide and put them in a commanding series position. All momentum sits in the Blue Sox dugout now as the mighty Adelaide line up must now find a way to get two wins on the road against Craig Anderson and Wayne Lundgren as well as a newly confident Sydney attack. Not an easy task by any stretch of the imagination!

Wait til I get my money right

Things have gotten so bad that playoff team members and supporters have been writing in to Deep in the Hole asking the Defensive Specialist to pick against them in the playoffs because if things hold true to form they’ll end up winning. For a certified “expert” at picking horseflesh, you have to know that this run of bad form truly troubles the Defensive Specialist. Your old pal has spent countless hours evaluating the process:

• Rock solid analysis: CHECK
• In-depth research: CHECK
• Numerous hours of study: CHECK
• A healthy dose of gut instinct: CHECK

Baseball is one of those sports that can totally derail a player if he can’t ride the storm and keep his emotions in order. As you can imagine the Defensive Specialist is unwavering in his self-belief but still turned to a mentor to get an assessment of the state of play:

Defensive Specialist: “I’m concerned that my analysis is off the mark”

Mentor: “It’s not”

Defensive Specialist: “But I’ve faltered on numerous occasions this season”

Mentor: “You’ve got to keep swinging the bat my young apprentice”

Defensive Specialist: “I could be in a slump”

Mentor: “Stop that. In the words of the great Kanye West – Wait til you get your money right”.

And with that, the Defensive Specialist felt a sense of calm. If the Defensive Specialist keeps doing the hard yards, the universe will correct itself and the Defensive Specialist will be an unstoppable force once again.

With Adelaide visiting Sydney this weekend, let the Defensive Specialist channel Kanye and tell you why each team can win and lose this contest.

Why Sydney will win:

Starting pitching. The Defensive Specialist feels like a broken record having spoken about the combination of Oxspring, Welch, Lundgren and Anderson ad infinitum this season but the fact is, no team can line up 4 front line guys like them. Of course the spanner in the works here is that Oxspring has been pushed into the bullpen in an effort to prepare himself for spring training. His departure dents things somewhat for the Blue Sox but the vast majority of teams would take a three headed monster featuring Welch, Lundgren and Anderson. Welch really is the key this series as he presents the best chance of a win for the Blue Sox. His season has been flat out dominant and he has shown that he can lock down even the best hitting teams. Manager Glenn Williams will be counting on Welch getting a win and eating innings so that he can throw the rest of his staff at the Bite in games 2 and potentially 3.

David Welch

Why Adelaide will win:

Because they’ve got an edge and they’re hungry. The Bite are riding a solid wave of momentum after pounding Melbourne at home in the minor semi final and winning 7 of their last 8 games. Momentum can be a powerful force, especially during the playoffs (and if anyone doubts that, take a look at the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers who both ended up in the World Series despite being severe underdogs entering the playoffs). Numerous readers have commented that the Bite just appear determined and edgy. It’s obvious that they can taste a championship and will do what it takes to achieve that goal (and yes, don’t be surprised if we see some physical fireworks) which means we will see some boys selling out physically to win ball games which makes for compelling viewing.

Why Adelaide will win:

The Bite bang the ball around the yard. With James McOwen in the 3 hole and Quincy Latimore in the clean up position the Adelaide team has some serious punch. Stefan Welch finally seems to have found some form with the bat and with Jeremy Cresswell leading off, the Bite have runners on board in front of their boppers. Brandon Bantz and Tom Brice have both been hot of late which means the Adelaide line up is dangerous 1-6 at the very least.

A frequently occurring event for the Bite offensively

Why Sydney will lose:

They just can’t hit. Ok, that’s a bit hard but why beat around the bush? Mitch Denning got it going against Perth (4-7), which is absolutely critical to the cause but the Blue Sox need Alex Johnson supplying some thunder and more importantly Trent D’Antonio and Trent Schmutter have to find a way to get on base in front of these two. After the top four it’s all question marks although Brendan Kingman has managed to run into a couple of balls for clutch homeruns. If Dening or Johnson can be shut down, the Defensive Specialist doesn’t see anyone else shouldering the burden.

Holy white man line beard!

Why Adelaide will lose:

Inconsistency in the starting pitching. Brandon Maurer really found his groove late in the year and despite not having his best stuff in his first play off appearance still managed to punch out 8 in 6 innings while giving up 3 runs. Mark Brackman will take the ball in game 1 and the big man will need to replicate his performance against Melbourne, especially when you consider that he’s going up against the miserly Welch. Knowing that his opponent wont give up many, Brackman will need to be dialled in and prepared to keep the Blue Sox to 2 runs or less. After those two, Manager Tony Harris has a quandary – does he use Paul Mildren (who’s been buried on the shelf for 2 weeks after a poor outing against Brisbane on January 20^th) or Dushan Ruzic (who could be a weapon out of the pen, especially against righties) should a game 3 start eventuate? The Bite pitching has been up and down this season and the worse case scenario for their skipper is a bumpy outing from a starter that forces the pen into action early in the series.

Why Sydney will win:

Home field advantage! Ok, so that was a cheap shot. Aside from being swept in the first round of the playoffs at home, the crowd support was less than optimal with large sections of the seating area empty for game 1 last week. Adelaide reportedly had 3000 people at their 2^nd playoff game while Sydney struggled to crack 1000. Without rapid home support, the Adelaide momentum will be allowed to run unchecked.

Why Adelaide will lose:

Good pitching beats good hitting. If the Blue Sox staff performs at its expected level they’re a tough group of arms to contest.  Remember a few weeks back when the Blue Sox shut down the Bite in 4 games (granted Latimore and McOwen were missing). If the Bite can’t manufacture runs early and grind it out they’ll face a tough challenge offensively because Williams can employ the lights out and rubber armed Dae Song Koo to close things out.

Why Sydney will win:

They’re the regular season league leaders who pulled Adelaide’s pants down in their last meeting. The Blue Sox finished in first place for a reason and may relish the fact that they enter this series as underdogs with the vast majority of baseball fans jumping on the Bite bandwagon for this preliminary final. The underwhelming expectations for the team may lift some of the pressure and allow them to play better baseball. Stranger things have happened!

So does the Defensive Specialist have his money right? Adelaide momentum + big bats Vs Sydney pitching + home field advantage. In the Defensive Specialist’s esteemed opinion, Adelaide wants it too much and will take the series convincingly, setting up a grand final contest between the Heat and the Bite.

(Sydney fans now rejoice and start wagering heavily on their team to win!)