Its time to DANCE!

The loyal readers out there may remember the Defensive Specialist fearlessly predicting that South Australia had no chance of winning the 2010 Claxton Shield. You may also recall just last week the Defensive Specialist boldly stating that the lads from SA couldn’t take care of New South Wales in the semi final. The Defensive Specialist would love to be able to tell you that he’s been put on the South Australian payroll as a motivation coach, unfortunately this is not the case. The boys from SA have grinded it out and found a way to the big dance where they’ll now have to test their mettle against a very good Victorian squad.

While the Defensive Specialist has been shooting blanks on his predictions, he’s been pretty spot on with the key performance indicators. In fact, the Defensive Specialist may never have been prouder than when he logged on to the streamed video of Sunday night’s game 3 just in time to see a routine fly ball hit South Australia’s Ben Wigmore directly in the heart of his glove and clank out. Hey, you have to take any small victory you can get when your series predictions are going up in smoke!

So many readers have questioned how a brainiac like the Defensive Specialist could have misfired so badly on the predictions. The Defensive Specialist has been asking himself the same thing, spending countless hours in the Deep in the Hole sensory deprivation tank to try to find the answers. All of this soul searching led to a meeting with the Deep in the Hole advanced scouting team and resulted in the entire staff (including the Defensive Specialist) being issued written warnings for poor performance.

Despite the fact that the Defensive Specialist couldn’t pick a winner to save himself, the readers of Deep in the Hole have been pounding the inbox, demanding to know when the grand final breakdown would be hitting the airwaves. So, once again, the Defensive Specialist is going to compare and contrast players at each position in order to indicate who holds the balance of power. Much of the South Australian material you would have seen in the semi final breakdown so leave those parts out when you print this off for your morning constitutional. Then, the Defenisve Specialist will find a dart board, assign odds to Victoria and evens to South Australia and make a prediction that way. Without further ado:

Catcher

South Australia’s Michael Collins had a monster offensive season, leading his team in most offensive categories despite playing in only 19 of a possible 24 games and finishing second in the league in batting average (.417). Collins’ numbers were enhanced by the freakish 3 homerun, 8 RBI performance that he managed late in the season, which is one of the more explosive outputs the Defensive Specialist has heard of at this level. Remarkably, Collins punched out on 6 times in 60 at bats while walking 18 times, which is a testament to his bat control and plate discipline. Collins went 2 for 9 in the semi final series with no extra base hits or RBI’s

Grant Karlsen does the majority of the heavy lifting behind the dish for Victoria with Tristin McDonald handling back up duties. Karlsen’s offense was somewhat anemic this season, hitting .211 with 5 RBI’s although he was equal leader on the team with 3 homeruns. McDonald hit better in limited duty with a .330 batting average. Karlsen threw out 4 of 16 base stealers and has provided a steady if unspectacular presence behind the dish.

Edge – South Australia. You can’t argue with the season Collins had.

First base

When Ryan Murphy isn’t coming out of nowhere and throwing complete game gems that decide a series, he mans first base for South Australia. Murphy played in 21 of his team’s 24 games posting a .247 batting average while stroking 3 homeruns and driving in 16. Murphy’s on base % was .337, which is a tad low for a middle of the order slugger. In the semi final series, he went 1 for 9 although that one knock ended up being a game winning bomb that was the cherry on top of his marvelous performance as a pitcher in game 3.

For the Aces, first base seems to be a position that they rotate guys through depending on their roster makeup. The last time the two teams met, switch hitter Brett Tamburrino handled the job. Tamburrino only played in 11 games but hit .367 with 2 homeruns, 9 RBI’s and 5 runs. Josh Davies saw some time at first base in the Aces last series against the Heat but spent the majority of his time at third base during the year.

Edge – Victoria. Tamburrino is a handy and consistent hitter, although Victoria’s depth allows them to rotate any number of good hitters through first base.

Second Base

Scott Wearne seems to be the go to guy for Victoria at second base. When the Defensive Specialist says ‘seems’ make no mistake, he isn’t questioning the guys ability, its more that he has floated around the infield a little bit. He had a tidy campaign hitting .320 with a team leading 21 runs, 10 doubles, 3 homeruns and 15 RBI’s. His .375% on base percentage allows him to lead off or hit deeper in the line up.

Mathew Smith is the guy for SA (although he did slide over to first when Murphy took the bump). He hit at a .263 clip (second on the team) while scoring 15 runs and driving in 10. Smith went hitless in 10 at bats against NSW in the semi final.

Edge – Victoria. If they aren’t playing Wearne at second, they can roll out Brad Harman.

Third base

Victoria uses Josh Davies at third for the most part. Davies had a fine season, hitting. 370 while playing in all 24 games. Davies scored 13 runs, drove in a team leading 19 and had 8 doubles. His slugging % was .489 with an on base percentage of .416. Defensively he was a little clumsy with 7 errors in 77 chances.

Fans of Deep in the Hole will know that the Defensive Specialist swoons over sexy little left handed swings. Stefan Welch possesses one. Welch hit out of the 3 hole for South Australia in 2010 hitting .253, with 15 runs and 12 RBI’s – numbers that he’d likely be disappointed with. His defense was somewhat porous at third with 6 errors in 79 chances. In the playoffs, Welch led the world, going 5 for 11 with a run scored.

Edge – Victoria. Davies numbers were sensational and once again, Victoria has the Brad Harman fall back option.

Shortstop

Coming off a sizzling semi final series, Jeremy Cresswell locks down shortstop for SA. Cresswell went 5 for 12 with a double in the 3 games against NSW. Since no one scored any runs in that series the Defensive Specialist won’t take umbrage at his lack of runs or RBI’s. During the season he played in all 24 of his clubs games and proved to be a standout defender. Hitting out of the number 2 spot in the order, Cresswell posted a .238 average and led his team with 19 runs scored. He also managed 5 stolen bases in 7 attempts. Cresswell is someone who can handle the bat and play the small game, which is a good thing since he exhibits almost zero power.

The flexibility that Victoria has in its lineup is not helping the Defensive Specialist’s ability to breakdown each position. It would appear that James Beresford is the shortstop of choice although Mathew Lawman has seen some time there during the season. Beresford is a stand out defender and can do his part with the bat. Late in the season he saw time in the leadoff position although the Defensive Specialist expects him to hit lower in the order during the finals. Lawman’s season offensively was off the charts but his defense was suspect as evidenced by his 11 errors.

Edge – Victoria. Too many options, too much depth, too much quality

Leftfield

Lawman’s glove plays better in left (or more importantly comes into play less) but his offense is what the Defensive Specialist really wants to talk about. Leading the league in hitting with a .423 average, Lawman scored 12 runs, drove in 11 and posted a slugging percentage of .549 and an OBP% of .468.

South Australian fans haven’t been overly impressed with the Defensive Specialist’s criticism of Ben Wigmore’s defence in left but unfortunately the issue cannot be shirked. As mentioned earlier, the foibles were captured on the web in game 3 when he dropped a can of corn late in a one run game. Defensive liability is a good way to explain it. In 2010 Wigmore’s bat has played at a level below his usual standard with a .205 batting average, 9 runs and 8 RBI’s. In the playoff against NSW he went 1-11 with a run scored.

Edge – Victoria. While both guys seem allergic to defense, Lawman’s bat well and truly makes up for any short comings.

Centrefield

The Defensive Specialist wasn’t able to see it but numerous sources confirmed that when D Wash recorded his one hit for the semi final series, he went all out for the Claxton Shield record (which he already owns, the Defensive Specialist may add) for hand claps down the line celebrating the knock. Unofficial counts suggest that he wasn’t able to break his record of thirteen but managed a respectable 11.5. Nothing to be sniffed at!

D Wash led the league in stolen bases with 12 (in 15 attempts) and handclaps with 126 (18 hits x an average of 7 handclaps per knock) in 2010. Leading off for SA, he hit .240 with 16 runs, 18 walks and an OBP of .394.

Paul Weichard is back for the Aces and will likely take his place in centrefield where he featured for the majority of the season. Weichard spent significant time in the 3 hole where he posted a .342 batting average with 13 runs, 15 RBI’s, 6 doubles, 2 homeruns and a slugging percentage of .507.

Edge – Victoria. While the Defensive Specialist LOVES how D Wash has brought celebrating a ground ball base hit to a new level, Weichard’s offensive ability puts him in a class above.

Rightfield

Dan Wilson’s hobbies include ice fishing, horticulture, completing Sudoku puzzles (difficulty level: medium) and taking spectacular catches that preserve leads. The Defensive Specialist would encourage baseball fans to check out the footage on South Australia’s website of the catch Wilson took on a sure homerun to hold the lead. http://www.baseballsa.com.au/index.php?option=com_wrapper&view=wrapper&Itemid=104

Wilson had earned the Defensive Specialist’s scorn early in the year when he decided to wear the tightest pants ever while pulling them up to his knees to reveal chicken legs. Thankfully Wilson has taken the Defensive Specialist’s fashion advice and gone with the ‘pants down look’. Offensively he hit .247 with 14 runs and 11 RBI’s. He posted a .344 OBP and stole 6 bases.

In rightfield for the Aces is Andrew Russell who put together a fine season with the bat. Hitting .348 with 18 runs, 7 doubles, 2 homeruns and 15 RBI’s, Russell proved to be an extremely solid hitter to have in the 2 hole.

Edge – Victoria. The Defensive Specialist always has a soft spot for a guy who takes on his couture tips, but the offense that Russell generates is to impressive to deny.

Due to the Defensive Specialist’s deficiencies around predicting outcomes, the Deep in the Hole team has instituted nightly information and scouting sessions designed to dissect the minutiae so that nothing is missed. The Defensive Specialist will be back on Friday morning with the second half of the breakdown. Hold tight.