Finding a way to contribute

Although the Defensive Specialist has always been a starter and often struggles to relate to bench players or role guys, he does remember an old adage that a coach dropped once upon a time: “even if you’re not in the game, there’s still something you can do to contribute to this ball club winning!” Obviously that was directed to the scrubs on the bench who’d ordinarily whittle their time away eating sunflower seeds or scratching themselves. The Defensive Specialist found the statement to be particularly salient in the lead up to this weekend’s South Australia Vs. NSW semi final playoff series as he couldn’t be in attendance.

This admission will leave many loyal Deep in the Hole readers crestfallen as they have come to lean heavily on the Defensive Specialist’s insight and expertise to assist them through each series. The Defensive Specialist has decided to step up to the plate and deliver a comprehensive series breakdown that should basically be able to tell you who’ll win the contest. In fact, once SportsBet got wind the Defensive Specialist was putting his thoughts out into cyberspace, they immediately froze all betting.

What better way to evaluate the two teams than by running through every position, bench, bullpen and manager and comparing and contrasting to see who holds the edge.

Catcher

Both teams are particularly strong behind the dish as you’d expect when you have a pair of former pro guys and Australian representatives donning the tools of ignorance. South Australia’s Michael Collins had a monster offensive season, leading his team in most offensive categories despite playing in only 19 of a possible 24 games and finishing second in the league in batting average (.417). Collins’ numbers were enhanced by the freakish 3 homerun, 8 RBI performance that he managed late in the season, which is one of the more explosive outputs the Defensive Specialist has heard of at this level. Remarkably, Collins punched out on 6 times in 60 at bats while walking 18 times, which is a testament to his bat control and plate discipline.

The Patriots Andy Graham started the season in white-hot form but tapered towards the conclusion. He posted solid offensive numbers, with a .333 BA, 3 homeruns and 11 RBI’s while spending the majority of his time hitting out of the 4 hole.

Neither guy sets the world on fire on the base paths and defensively Graham gets the nod from the Defensive Specialist who rates his arm and blocking skills as slightly better than Collins. Graham threw out 4 of 15 base stealers while Collins caught 4-17

Edge – South Australia. You don’t sit amongst the league leaders in most offensive categories and lose the positional battle.

First Base

The Defensive Specialist is going to talk about PAT MAT (NSW) and Ryan Murphy  (SA) in purely offensive terms in this evaluation since both have the range of statues and use the little known Rawlings Polished Concrete gloves in the field. In case you don’t follow that, in the simplest possible terms they suck on defense. PAT MAT had an impressive season with the stick, hitting .390 and leading his club in RBI’s and total bases. He provides a solid bat in the 5 hole and has proven to be a dangerous run producer with runners in scoring position. His .573 slugging and .446 on base percentage was amongst league leaders.

Canadian Ryan Murphy played in 21 of his teams 24 games posting a .247 batting average while stroking 3 homeruns and driving in 16.  Murphy’s on base % was .337, which is a tad low for a middle of the order slugger.

EDGE – NSW. PAT MAT’s fine season with the stick gives him a distinct advantage over Murphy.

Second Base

Somewhat of a mystery for both teams in this series. SA gave a number of chances to Josh Cakebread who in baseball circles would be politely referred to as ‘all field, no hit’. Later in the season, manager Tony Harris seems to have handed the position to Mathew Smith whose offensive output has been more acceptable. Smith hit at a .263 clip (second on the team) while scoring 15 runs and driving in 10. Smith has played all over the diamond but looked comfortable at second in the games that the Defensive Specialist eyeballed him in.

The Patriots started the season with Shannon Pender at second but had to scramble to find a replacement when Pender went down with a neck injury as a result of his afro getting too heavy. Jason Pospishil (who’s name continues to prove to be the most difficult to spell correctly when power typing and spell checks to popsicle) has ably stepped into the void and posted some reasonably tidy numbers while playing ok defense. Popsicle appeared in 17 games, scoring 11 runs and batting .316.

Edge – NSW (ever so slightly). Popsicle’s offense and familiarity at second edge Smith who filled more of a utility role.

Third Base

The Defensive Specialist really had to battle his affinity for pretty left handed strokes (cue porno music) here in order to provide an objective assessment of the two third basemen. Stefan Welch is a professional hitter with an extremely attractive swing from the left side………pardon the interruption, the Defensive Specialist had to hit the bathroom. Anchoring the 3 hole for SA, Welch hit .253, with 15 runs and 12 RBI’s – numbers that he’d likely be disappointed in. His defense was somewhat porous at third with 6 errors.

Speaking of porous, NSW’s Mark Holland finished second in the league in errors with 9. Holland appeared in all of the Patriot’s games, hitting .247 while driving in 14. Holland typically hit out of the 2 hole for NSW although his .317 on base % is low for the position.

Edge – SA. Welch’s lower than expected offensive output is still enough to put him ahead of Holland.

Shortstop

As Deep in the Hole HQ is located in NSW, the Defensive Specialist probably saw more at bats from Michael Lysaught than any other player in the competition. It also seemed that every time the Defensive Specialist watched him, he put on an offensive display including a couple of multi hit games and a game with 2 homeruns. Some guys just step up when they know a baseball luminary is in the house. Unfortunately, when the Defensive Specialist wasn’t around, Lysaught’s production didn’t always maintain such high standards. Hitting .260 with 14 RBI’s and leading his team and the league in runs scored with 21 is a pretty fair offensive performance nonetheless. Lysaught did show a particular aversion to taking a base on balls (6) and led the league in strikeouts with 29. His on base percentage was an extremely low .309 for a lead off hitter. Defensively his performance was very sound, showing good range and plenty of arm.

Jeremy Cresswell played in all 24 of his clubs games and proved to be a standout defender. Hitting out of the number 2 spot in the order, Cresswell posted a .238 average and led his team with 19 runs scored. He also managed 5 stolen bases in 7 attempts. Cresswell is someone who can handle the bat and play the small game, which is a good thing since he exhibits almost zero power.

Edge – NSW. Lysaught’s power and run scoring ability put him ahead of the light hitting Cresswell.

Leftfield

South Australia’s Ben Wigmore is a guy who has traditionally feasted on Claxton Shield pitching. Originally a catcher, he has taken that mentality to left field where he routinely tries to block fly balls instead of catching them and runs circle routes on balls in the air. In years past this would have been overlooked as he mashed. In 2010 however his bat has played at a level below his usual standard with a .205 batting average, 9 runs and 8 RBI’s. Perhaps noting that he was letting himself down offensively, he stepped up and put his body on the line with 7 hit by pitches.

The Defensive Specialist anticipates Mitch Denning returning to the fold for NSW in left. Denning gets the Defensive Specialist stirring in the loins with his left handed swing and he puts it to good use, leading his team in hitting- .391. Denning scored 17 runs while driving in 10 and hitting 2 homeruns. He was in the top 3 in both slugging (.594) and OBP (.466).

EDGE – NSW. Denning is a big offensive piece in the Patriots puzzle and has been a reliable middle order hitter in 2010.

Centrefield

Two of the Defensive Specialists favourite players in 2010. For South Australia you have David Washington or D Wash as he goes by on the street. If the Defensive Specialist was breaking down the best celebrations on a base hit, D Wash would be a world series champion. Noone can get more claps in while running down the base line after a single to centrefield! D Wash holds the Claxton Shield record at 13.

D Wash’s primary weapon is speed – he led the league in stolen bases with 12 (in 15 attempts). Leading off for SA, D Wash hit .240 with 16 runs, 18 walks and an OBP of .394. Loyal readers may recall the last series the Defensive Specialist watched featuring South Australia where D Wash had a little trouble with his routes to fly balls. For SA’s sake, the Defensive Specialist hopes that he has taken a few extra flys as his speed wasn’t able to make up for these errors in judgment.

Techno Tim Auty caught the Defensive Specialists attention early in the season when his walk up music (the music that plays as he comes up to bat) was some hard core dance music featuring approximately 15,000 beats per minute. As a child of the rave era, the Defensive Specialist had dance moves flooding back to him during each at bat and a genuine hankering to twirl glow sticks while sniffing vicks. When unable to play his dance track before at bats, Techno Tim stayed true to his roots with some fluoro batting gloves that wouldn’t be out of place some of the world’s biggest dance festivals.

Auty posted a .244 average over 23 games, scoring 11 runs and driving in 8. His on base percentage was about as awful as a comedown after a 3 day binge (.286). Techno Tim also had a tendency to use his time in the field as a chill out session, which led to some sloppy play on ground balls.

Edge – SA. D Wash takes it in centrefield and in the hand-clapping department.

Rightfield

David Kandilas appears to be the guy for the Patriots in right, playing in 21 games. His numbers weren’t overly fantastic with a .206 average, 8 runs, 7 RBI’s and a stinky OBP of .257. With Denning away late in the season, Tim Atherton saw time in the field for the Patriots and hit a respectable .313 with 7 runs and 8 RBI’s so the Defensive Specialist wouldn’t be surprised if NSW manager Glenn Williams parks Kandilas in favour of the hotter Atherton.

SA will send out Desperate Dan Wilson to rightfield. Wilson may be the skinniest man in the Claxton Shield in 2010 and did himself no favours early in the season by wearing his pants high and showing off his chicken legs. Wilson hit .247 with 14 runs and 11 RBI’s. He posted a .344 OBP and stole 6 bases.

Edge – SA. The equation changes slightly if Atherton goes out there for NSW but Wilson has done enough to beat out either.

Designated Hitter

Probably the biggest disparity in the entire breakdown. Trent D’Antonio had a very tidy season while seeing the vast majority of his playing time as DH. Hitting .345, D’Antonio scored 15 and drove in 17 with a slugging % of .506 and an OBP of .431. D’Antonio chipped in with 6 stolen bases and proved to be a handy back up catcher, nailing 6 of the 11 base runners who attempted to steal on him.

DH is a bit of a dogs breakfast for SA with no real standout at the position. The Defensive Specialist assumes that Angus Roeger will take the majority of swings based on past appearances. He hit .250 in only 24 at bats but did show some juice with 2 home runs. He also showed a propensity to punch out with 12. Other candidates include Scott Gladstone who got some AB’s late in the season.

EDGE – NSW. D’Antonio cannot be competed with in this series.

Starting Pitching

NSW will likely roll out a staff featuring Tim Cox, Wayne Lundgren and Craig Anderson. Cox is a clear ace, posting a 3-1 record and a 2.38 ERA in 41 innings. The Defensive Specialist watched Cox’s second to last outing against the Heat where he was throwing a change up that looked like a slider and baffled the Heat’s right handed hitters. Cox’s hit total was up this year with an opponent’s batting average of .290, but he did strike out 46 hitters to lead the league. If he manages to keep the Baseball gods on side, NSW can expect to win. Lundgren also had a win loss record of 3-1 while posting a 3.02 ERA. His strikeout totals (33) were low for a guy who throws reasonably firmly but he countered this by only issuing 4 BB in 41 innings. Craig Anderson seems to be the 3^rd starter of choice late in the season although his outings appear to be governed by a pitch count. Anderson hasn’t yielded a run in his 2 starts despite tossing his soggy underwear up to the plate (73mph fastball). His ability to change speeds and locate even with low velocity keeps hitters off balance.

South Australia counters with a decent starting rotation themselves, led by Paul Mildren and his 5-1 record. Lefty Mildren put up an ERA of 2.96 in 45 innings with 42 strikeouts and only 13 walks and will be called upon to take the ball in game 1. Veteran Darren Fidge made 8 starts this season going 1-4 with a 4.14 ERA. Fidge still manages to hump it up there although hurt himself with 20 base on balls. The interesting decision will be on a game 3 starter. Richard Bartlett has made 4 starts for SA winning 4 and losing 1 with a 4.50 ERA although he only punched out 9 in 26 innings. On the upside, he did limit opposition hitters to a .230 batting average. Dushan Ruzic is the other option as a starter, going 2-1 in 35 innings. The big side armer is an asset out of the pen as he can eat innings in relief. He struck out almost a hitter per inning.

Edge – NSW. Cox+Lundgren+ Anderson > Mildren+Fidge+Bartlett/ Ruzic. It’s simple mathematics.

Bullpen

South Australia’s core group of relievers includes Chris Lawson, Steven O’Connor, and Hayden Beard. All 3 posted decent numbers with Beard being the standout with 1 earned run in 9 innings of work and 10 strikeouts. O’Connor limited opposing hitters to a .182 batting average and Lawson posted a 2.45 ERA in 11 innings with 11 K’s. If Ruzic goes to the pen he provides another power arm that can shut down a lineup.

The Patriots pen is a little Slim Shady in the Defensive Specialists opinion. Todd Gratton gets a lot of work (also as a starter) but was left off the roster the last 2 series (he did walk 22 hitters in 18 innings which may go towards explaining the exclusion). Lefty Matthew Rae pitched in 16 innings, winning 2 games and saving 3. He struck out 17 while putting up an ERA of 2.81. Canadian Lee Ingram has received more work late in the season and appears to have assumed the closers role. He has yet to yield an earned run while striking out 10 in 9 innings. Vaughn Harris and Jarret Commane round out the notable names. Harris has been fairly hittable in relief, with opposing hitters posting a  .295 average against him. Commane has made 3 starts and provides the Patriots with a durable arm that can churn through some innings in long relief although he is prone to the free pass (19 in 29 innings).

EDGE – South Australia. If Ruzic goes to the pen South Australia have a group of good arms that have put up solid numbers across the season.

Bench

Woof. Both benches are a bit of a dog. Depending on what NSW does in right, they could have a decent bat on the pine (Atherton or Kandilas) but not much at all after that. South Australia is finding it tough to even find a 10^th hitter to DH so their bench is even thinner. In fact, things are so bad, the Defensive Specialist may skip this category.

Managers

An interesting contrast between the two skippers with South Australia’s Tony Harris having coached and managed for a number of years and the Patriots Glenn Williams making his first foray into the art. With the lineups pretty much written for the managers, the biggest challenge for both head men will be managing the pitching staffs and bullpen matchups. Both will want to ride their starters fairly hard and the manager who gets his timing right will have a big edge.

Edge – South Australia. The Defensive Specialist has to go with the experienced hand although Williams may just shock the world.

Intangibles

The series will be played in South Australia in front of a crowd that hasn’t tasted success in what seems like 85 years (closer to 30). Sentiment and support probably sits with the boys from South Australia as they have been a doormat in recent years and everyone loves an underdog. Having said that, very few would gave tasted playoff baseball at this level which may lead to some very tight sphincters which isn’t conducive to good baseball.

The Patriots have been in and around playoff baseball since Jesus was a lad and as such should be less fazed by the pressure. Having said that, they’ll be stepping into a cauldron in South Australia as the fans come out to cheer their boy’s home in 2010.

Edge – NSW. Been there, done that in playoff baseball.

So by the Defensive Specialist’s count (and seeing as we’re at about 3000 words) that’s 7 edges to 6 in favour of the Patriots. The Defensive Specialist is predicting a grand tussle at Norwood Oval with a parochial crowd doing everything they can to will their hometown boys on. As much as the Defensive Specialist would like to see SA rise up off the mat and advance to the big dance, the Patriots just have too much offense for South Australia’s pitching staff to handle. If the Patriots starters perform as expected, they’ll contain the SA lineup and propel the Patriots to a series win.

The Defensive Specialist has crunched all the numbers, tapped into his innate baseball instincts, conferred with the Deep in the Hole advanced scouting team and predicts a NSW victory - 2 games to 1.