Recently the Defensive Specialist received an email from
a young upstart indicating that Deep in the Hole had changed his life (ok
perhaps this is a slight exaggeration) and served as inspiration to start his
own blog on Australian baseball. The Deep in the Hole advisory staff warned the
Defensive Specialist that Australia is a one baseball-blog town and that all
competition should be annihilated. The Defensive Specialist didn’t get to the
top of his game by following conventional thinking and with that in mind
decided to do the opposite – unite.
With the ABL about to get cranking, the more voices
talking about Australian baseball the better. The Backyard Baseballer can be
found at: http://backyardbaseballer.blogspot.com/ It would be easy
for the Defensive Specialist to simply plug the website and leave it at that.
Instead, the Defensive Specialist decided to talk baseball. Here’s how the first
of potentially many email conversations unfolded:
DS: You've recently started a blog focusing on Australian baseball and
right off the bat you're spouting the virtues of hitters walking and things
like OPS+. Why the interest in Sabermetrics and what value does it add to
the game?
BB: I guess it's more or
less another way to look at the game and evaluate performance more effectively.
A few years ago I was like most people, thought a .300 batting average was good
and that was about it. But then I read Moneyball (great read) and was hooked. I
started researching people like Bill James and Tom Tango who are currently both
in front offices in the Majors. It's definitely not everyone’s cup of tea, but
from my perspective the 'new age' stats add so much value. For instance, after
looking at the stats from last year’s Claxton Shield, I can pinpoint needs for
each team (I think). Now if you're in charge of putting players on the field,
surely you want the most amount of information possible when making a decision
on who to put on the diamond. By looking at Sabermetrics, you definitely give
yourself the best opportunity to make the best decisions with regard to
players. Given the failures of the previous league, the more information
available for decision makers the better
DS: And it’s your line of thinking that gets under the
skin of 'old school' baseball people who look at things like batting average,
RBI's and runs and make decisions based on this information. Obviously having
the ability to identify physical tools is an important part of building a team
(meaning scouts will always have a place), but the ability to accurately
measure defensive effectiveness and a player’s true value is critical - and
even more so in this era where so much capital is invested in the sport. The
same applies to the ABL, if you field a poor team, you lose fans, revenue and
your franchise. It was interesting to read Joe Girardi's argument yesterday for
choosing Paul Konerko over Kevin Youkilis for the all-star game. Girardi
basically said that Konerko was hitting a bit better for average and had more
homeruns, but a closer look at all numbers suggest that Youkilis is having the
superior year offensively and destroys Konerko defensively. And we all thought
Girardi was a 'modern manager'.
Which sabermetric measurement gets you all hot under the collar?
BB: Definitely, there
is a sort of a feeling in baseball that 'well when I played we did this' as
opposed to wanting to continually adapt to situations once new information
comes to hand. I definitely think that scouts always will have a place as well;
the reality is that it is a 'physical' sport as opposed to a sport played
over a simulation. I couldn't agree more with the cost
of capital, you only have to look at how cost effective the Oakland
Athletics were from 2000 onward and maintained their performance to
realise that effectively identifying players results in greater organisational
performance. As for what metrics I love, for me I've definitely
fallen in love with the defensive metrics coming out. So the recent developments
in zone ratings have gotten me very excited. I love the thought that
people can measure the difference in defensive between positions, and then come
up with a conclusion that 'Franklin Guitierez is more valuable than Raul
Ibanez'.
DS: Be careful
referencing the Oakland A's nowadays, their GM seems to have fallen asleep at
the wheel! Ben Sheets at 10 million a pop was a bit out of character.
The biggest problem with
advanced defensive metrics is that they totally make the gold glove awards obsolete
since rarely does the best defender actually win the award.
My favourite new fangled
metric would have to be WAR - Wins Above Replacement. It measures both hitting
and fielding contributions while considering the difficulty of the position
played and makes for a great tool to compare players. We're probably a few
years away from having it to evaluate the ABL however.
Before readers think that they've ended up on a mathematics convention,
let's change tack. In your opinion, which hitter and pitcher will blow up the
ABL in 2011 from a performance perspective?
BB: Billy Beane
definitely has lost a bit, but again, that could be attributed to the rest of
the league catching up with forward thinking.
From a performance perspective, I've already done a post raving about De
San Miguel. But in terms of blowing up, and being an out and out star, it's
hard to look past Mitch Denning. Has a great swing, and made a huge step last
year and could be the face of the league given his age. While the
power may not come straight away, it's hard to see it not
coming. From a pitching standpoint, I'd be looking at the same roster
with Cox, again just given his age and the fact that he has already managed to
dominate Claxton Shield hitters for a few years now. Those two guys are
probably the main reason I think that NSW will be the team to beat next season
DS: I've had a man crush
on Denning's swing now for a full season and the lust and desire doesn't seem
to be waning. Cox was a very safe pick, but you're right, he's carved the
league up over the last couple of years and if he's available he’s likely to
continue to do so.
Ok, I’m putting my money
on Liam Hendriks to have a ridiculous year on the mound. There are a lot of
'ifs' with Hendriks who sometimes seems like he's made out of china (with the
injury history he has). The Twins definitely treat him like he is, not letting
him throw at all last year. BUT, the guy has a noodle arm and the ball gets on
hitters real quick. He has made short work of the two professional leagues he's
played in this year, and both his velocity and control have improved. He does
have the worst technique for getting over the foul lines as he walks on and off
the field though!
Offensively I’m staying
in NSW and picking Trent Oeltjen. There have been a few whispers that he'll
play in the ABL and if he does, he may tear it a new anus. His numbers at
triple A have been very solid (despite switching teams) and he is of an age -
27, where man strength is fully established and you have an idea of what you're
doing at the dish. If NSW can plug him into their lineup - watch out!
Considering Victoria won the whole thing last year, what makes you pick
NSW?
BB: Oeltjen is a star and might end up stealing a million bases given
the amount of hits he'll get. From what I've heard, each team will get about 4
players from overseas to fill their roster. Just looking at the rosters from
each team, if NSW manage to find some players to fill holes (CF
with Oeltjen), a corner outfielder and even one more dominant pitcher, it's
hard seeing them be beaten in a series. I guess my opinion centers around
the fact that Victoria’s line up performed very well last year, meaning that
they may not be able to increase their performance on last year at all, despite
gaining players. Whereas NSW has clear holes, that if filled, will result in
clear gains. Although my opinion is pretty dependent on NSW being able to
gain the services of these players and then them performing.
DS: You make some good
points on NSW. There is also scuttlebutt that they'll be acquiring the
services of New Zealand's lone professional baseballer - Scott Campbell who has
ties to Sydney through family. That's another triple A bat to plug into the
line up and play either second or third although he has been shelved through
injury for much of this pro season. And if they can get some arms like David
Welch and Brad Tippet going for them they'll be really strong.
I wasn't real high on
the South Australian team and think they don’t have enough local talent to
compliment any of the pro guys they bring out. The Defensive Specialist's boy D
Wash is having a tough time getting a gig there again this season as well,
which may reduce some of their ticket sales.
Queensland is really
young and are a couple of years away.
Canberra looks like it
will be made up of NSW discards although getting the services of Michael
Collins, Nick Kimpton, Hayden Beard and Steve Kent will definitely help.
The Heat will lose arms
like Kelly and Peacock through work commitments and Scott Mitchinson recently
underwent his annual arm surgery.
If Victoria can add Travis
Blackley and Shane Lindsay for a full season and pluck Justin Huber out of
Japan they have to be a red hot chance.
With a 4 game series,
having 2 professional import arms is big since you should theoretically be in
every game. I have a sneaking suspicion we're going to see some serious
pitching as the Australian stocks are increased with pro guys wanting to
participate and being complimented by US arms.
Part 2 on Thursday
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