Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Complex Algorithms

Alright, its that time of the week again when the Defensive Specialist sits down in front of the Deep in the Hole supercomputer, punches in a bunch of complex algorithms and generates a series of infallible predictions for the upcoming round of games. For two weeks straight now the level of accuracy has been astonishing…….ly bad. Seriously, if you happen to be a degenerate gambler then you really need to stop reading right now – the Defensive Specialist does not want to be held responsible for marriage breakdowns or forfeiture of assets as a result of bad betting.

Ok, with that warning the Defensive Specialist is ready to give it another crack.

Sydney Blue Sox Vs. Brisbane Bandits

Baseball returns to NSW this week and your old pal is ready for some live action again with the Blue Sox taking on the Bandits. Last week the teams split their series on Brisbane soil even though two Blue Sox players took out awards for their outstanding contributions; Chris Oxspring and Alex Johnson.  Oxspring has had more ink in this forum than any other player, but he keeps tossing out gems to the point that perhaps we should start referring to him as the jeweller. Last week’s one hitter was exactly what the Blue Sox needed after falling behind 2-0 in the series, and really halted any momentum the Bandits had going. The Defensive Specialist was unable to find out why he was held until game 3 of the series although logic suggests the first game of the double header being 7 innings meant that manager Glenn Williams could use him for the entire contest and save his bullpen. Expect that to occur again on Saturday as the teams play a double dip.

Johnson, the mystery man from parts unknown, dropped 2 bombs and racked up 5 RBI’s last week to propel himself to the top of the batting leader board. His improbable hot streak was predicted by an anonymous reader in this forum a week or so back who really should drop the Defensive Specialist an email revealing his or herself so that their powers of prediction can be used to prop up the Defensive Specialist. As with any newcomer to the scene, it will be interesting to see how he maintains his form as the league gets repeated looks at him.

The Blue Sox trail only the Bite as an offensive ballclub, but haven’t had stand out performances from the usual suspects such as Trent D’Antonio, Mitch Dening, Stone Hands Maat and Andy Graham. If these four guys are able to perform at their expected level the Blue Sox attack could be very dangerous. On a brighter note, Techno Tim Auty is back in the country fresh off his runaway victory at the World Electronic Dance Championships. His bat will be a welcome return to the 2-hole as will his 17000 beats per minute sound track.


They say that being crapped on by a bird is lucky so perhaps that’s what happened to the Bandits last week when they won 2 games against the heavily favoured Blue Sox. 
Look carefully at the picture and really zone in on the helmet
James Albury has provided two steady outings and appears to be a staff leader although his walk and strikeout totals do not fill the Defensive Specialist with hope. In fact, the entire staff seems to love the base on balls with Hiroki Yamada punching out 14 in 11 innings of work with 6 BB’s and Ryan Searle issuing 5 in 10 innings. If the starters keep providing additional outs, it makes it tough to stay in games. From an offensive perspective, Joshua Roberts and Wade Dutton (the recipient of the bird turd deposit) have led the way but there is still a long way to go as the team has the lowest run tally in the league and no one has left the yard yet which is a concern.

Prediction- Sydney needs the rest of its rotation to figure itself out with Wayne Lundgren uncharacteristically bad last week and David Welch getting knocked around for the second consecutive outing. Having said that, the Defensive Specialist expects the Blue Sox to recalibrate themselves and get right after the Bandits on their home turf. Blue Sox to win the series 4-0.

Adelaide Bite Vs. Perth Heat

Another series that was split right down the middle last week with the key difference this time around being the loss of a major Perth Heat bat – Luke Hughes. You don’t easily replace a 3-hole thumper like Hughes, especially since he had begun to Heat up. The Heat will hope to plug the hole and rely more heavily on imports Robbie Widlansky and Ronnie Welty while praying long term contributors Mitch Graham (.114), Allan de Sa Miguel (.182) and Matt Kennelly (.154) turn it up a notch as they take on the most explosive offensive team in the competition.

The Heat starting pitching is bolstered with the return to the rotation of Liam Hendriks who dealt last week and now has 9 strike outs in 7 innings of work with only 3 hits. Daniel Schmidt was cruising for the second week in a row until the bus broke down in struggle town and he was gang banged in one inning. The Heat bullpen has been a real strong point for them this season and they’ll need to be on point as they go up against the Adelaide squad.

The Q-Tip leads the way for the Bite hitting at a robust .441 clip with 4 long balls and 12 RBI’s. Backing him up are James McOwen and Brandon Bantz who have proven to be valuable additions to the squad in a short period of time. These three guys are absolutely critical to the Adelaide team, as their output has carried some fairly poor contributions from other key members.

On the mound the Bite have to be happy with what they’ve received from their big 3- Paul Midlren (1-1, 2.13 ERA), the ageless Darren Fidge (2-0, 3.21 ERA) and Dushan Ruzic (1-0, 1.98 ERA). Ryan Murphy and Wayne Oughs contributions have been solid out of the pen with Brandon Maurer expected to continue to improve. Adelaide’s pitching is heavily reliant on their starters extending in to the latter innings as the rest of their bullpen is somewhat suspect.

Prediction- The Heat head to the raucous Norwood Oval, minus a big bat, and with the Bite riding high after splitting on the road… the home crowd will propel Adelaide to a 3-1 series win.

Melbourne Aces Vs. Canberra Multiculturalists

The two worst offensive teams in the competition square off at Melbourne’s new home ground – the MCG! Ok that’s a white lie, they’re actually playing at the Melbourne Showgrounds which has been renovated to look and feel just like the MCG! The Aces will be happy to be in friendly territory and will hope that with some fan support they can make a dent in the win column.

Josh Davies has been the leading light for the Aces offensively, hitting at a .379 mark. Runs have been hard to come by and as a result no one jumps out of the stat sheet as a major producer. Justin Huber needs to dig deep and find something for his team as his anaemic 2-29 offering to this point is not helping the cause. At the outset of the season much bigger things were also expected of Matthew Lawman and Scott Wearne and the Japanese imports are staring down the barrel of a straight swap for a bento box (miso soup included) if they don’t start bringing something to the table.

You know your pitching staff is in a spot of bother when your starting catcher has the best ERA on the ball club (ok, that was a cheap shot, Grant Karlsen was obviously used in mop up duty during a blow out). Adam Blackley was much better in his second outing and Greg Wiltshire provided a quality start for Melbourne in his first appearance. Donovan Hendriks has not had the start he’d hoped for (8+ ERA with 1 strike out n 6 innings) and Norihito Kaneto is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in his 2 outings.  Surely one of the 16 coaches on the coaching staff has some expertise in pitching to fix this?

For the Multiculturalists Jun Hyeok Heo takes the ball in game 1 and at this point the Defensive Specialist doesn’t really know what to expect from him. In 3 starts he’s gone 1-2, striking out 10 in 12 innings while only walking 2. Steve Kent has made 3 starts for the Canberra team while only pitching 7 innings, which obviously brings the bullpen into play very early in the contest. Phil Brassington is pencilled in as a starter this weekend which always makes for interesting viewing since the knuckleball can be a hero or villain on any given day (or any inning for that matter). With Kent and Brassington in the rotation there is a chance that the bullpen will be tested and to this point it hasn’t been the steadiest part of the operation for manager Steve Schrenk.

Michael Collins continues to mash for the Multiculturalists although you’d love to see a little more pop from him. After his big numbers, things drop off with contributions from Tom Vincent and Nick Kimpton and then a barren wasteland. The Multiculturalists desperately need Didi Gregorious setting the table and greater contributions from Donald Lutz and the Korean contingent who should probably imagine the Melbourne hurlers to be Kim Jong-il and take out their rage on him.




Prediction- Ok, the Defensive Specialist is going big here and suggesting that the Aces spark up in front of their home crowd at the mini MCG and deliver a beat down on the Multiculturalists to take the series 3-1.








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