Credit Where Credit is Due

The Defensive Specialist’s series predictions have become a dog’s breakfast of inaccuracy each and every week. Despite picking winners with about the same level of precision as a scud missile, the Defensive Specialist insists on ploughing on – after all, the key to becoming a champion is persistence so your old pal is going to take another crack at it. Before we get to the balky guesses / educated picks, the Defensive Specialist wanted to take a moment to congratulate himself for directly contributing to Chris Oxspring signing a professional contract with the Detroit Tigers yesterday. Seriously, the Defensive Specialist was scanning the advanced metrics that work behind the scenes of the Deep in the Hole blog and noticed a flurry of activity hitting the site from the offices of the Detroit Tigers, specifically around the time that Oxspring was crowned “Dude of the Month” for November. If you ever doubted the clout of the Defensive Specialist, well this signing has to show you that the man wields mighty power! One award from Deep in the Hole and the guy is banging on the door of the big leagues again!

Ok, so perhaps the Defensive Specialist is slightly exaggerating his involvement in the whole thing. Congratulation to Chris nonetheless, now he can truly say to his pitching staff “BE LIKE ME!” when they’re scuffling.

Another house cleaning issue that the Defensive Specialist vowed to clear up was the ruling around adding players to the 22-man roster. According to a team General Manager, players can be added to the 22-man roster in the case of injury or illness but these changes have to be approved by the ABL. So without knowing what transpired with the Multiculturalists, it’s safe to assume that they didn’t get up to any unsanctioned mischief when they used coach Michael Wells to fill in during their last series.

And finally before the Defensive Specialist embarrasses himself again with his picks, lets answer a question from reader Nathan:

Hello Defensive Specialist,

I'm a big fan of your blog, and enjoyed this run down of the Blue Sox lineup challenges. You mentioned that the addition of Trent Oeltjen could add some spice. I agree - but I think it poses a challenge for the team when three of the better bats belong to Dening, Auty and Kandilas. Will be interesting to see who gets pushed out. I have read around the place that Dening can play a bit of first base, not really sure how likely that is though, and I can't imagine they would have Oeltjen as a DH...so who misses out? Auty? 


Keep up the good work


Nathan

Nathan,

Thanks for taking the time to write in.

As much as it pains the Defensive Specialist to say it, you’d have to think Techno Tim is the odd guy out when and if Oeltjen makes his much anticipated appearance for the Blue Sox. You slot Oeltjen in to centre, move Dening to left and let Kandilas lock down right. However Oeltjen’s return really throws a cat amongst the pigeons because there is a strong chance he may just DH which means that Alex Johnson, Stone Hands Maat or the Bossman miss out and you end up playing a lesser bat in the outfield. Either way, I’m sure it’s a problem manager Glenn Williams is looking forward to having because his bat is a huge addition to the line up.

Right, time to get focussed and nail these picks.

Adelaide Bite Vs. Brisbane Bandits

The Bite will be desperate to get back in the winners circle after last week’s debacle against the Multiculturalists that saw them get swept in a 3 game series. The Bandits return to home soil fresh off a split against the Heat, which could have very nearly been a 3-1 series win. As much as the Bandits have continually made the Defensive Specialist look stupid lately, the Defensive Specialist’s heart and advanced analytics tell him that Adelaide will come out swinging. They’ve added a 6’7 monster by the name of Mark Brackman to the pitching staff which gives them another professional arm and of course the Q-Tip continues to bang along with James McOwen. Adelaide to take the series on the road 3-1.

Sydney Blue Sox Vs. Melbourne Aces

Sydney took the series 2-0-1 last weekend in a rain affected contest and now travel to Melbourne for their first taste of action at the MCG.  The Aces added Travis Blackley last week and Shane Lindsay this weekend, significantly bolstering their pitching staff. Their bats were fairly stagnant last week but that is almost expected against the Blue Sox considering the strength of their arms. Speaking of arms, the Defensive Specialist strolled past Ryan Rowland Smith at the airport in Brisbane this week – no real reason for telling you that story other than to let you know he’s in the country. Anyway, getting back to the predictions – Melbourne’s improved pitching versus Sydney’s sputtering offense = 2-2 split.

Canberra Multiculturalists Vs. Perth Heat

The Multiculturalists have to be riding high after brazenly taking 3 games off Adelaide last weekend and head to the West Coast with the goal of at least splitting the series. The Heat have demonstrated that they don’t mind people coming into their house, eating all their food and making out with their wife as evidenced by them splitting their last 2 home series. The one advantage the Heat have is that the Multiculturalists have not travelled well at all having not yet won on the road. The Multiculturalists bats got going against Adelaide with Donald Lutz leading the way. The Heat welcome back Tim Kennelly (who just spent time in the prestigious Arizona Fall League) to the line up where his bat will be another welcome addition. Manager Brooke Knight will count on ace Liam Hendriks figuring things out as his last 2 starts have been horrendous. Daniel Schmidt, Cole McCurry and Warwick Saupold will also need to calm the Canberra bats. Heat to take the series 3-1.

The Defensive Specialist looks forward to reflecting on these picks on Monday! Enjoy your baseball weekend.

Feeling Blue

The Defensive Specialist wanted to take a break from making horrible series predictions and answer a couple of questions that have recently hit the comments box and email.

First up from an anonymous poster:

I'd like the Defensive Specialist to weight in on this one...In what rulebook in PROFESSIONAL baseball; can a team put a COACH on the field? I have nothing against Mike Wells; I've just never heard of allowing a coach to suit up and play. Wells was NOT on the 22-man roster, nor was he on the 35-man roster (the minor leagues). The team still has several very good position players who ARE on the roster who have not had the chance to get out on the field. Why not let them suit up and play? If the ABL really wants to be taken seriously by the world of Professional Baseball; then they really should follow the rules. You won't see this kind of thing happening in Major League Baseball! The Bite should play this series under protest!

Well that’s a different question! Not since the days of the ‘player coach’ has the Defensive Specialist heard of a coach getting into a game in professional baseball. A quick check of the Multiculturalists roster indicates that 23 guys are listed ‘active’ as of 8.05pm on Tuesday night. As far as the Defensive Specialist knows teams can only nominate 22 players per series and that roster is fixed. We have seen considerable flexibility around the 35 man rosters with players coming and going throughout the season, but to extend the active roster by an additional man seems a little slim shady quite frankly.

Obviously the goal of the ABL in the early days is to put a good product out on the field each and every week, so roster flexibility is a good thing as it prevents teams from being decimated by injury and playing short. It does seem odd however that a 23rd man could be pulled into action especially as it’s really only beneficial to the home team who have additional players on hand to draw from. In fact, something similar happened in Perth last weekend when a player was struck down by illness (and taken to hospital by ambulance) and replaced on the roster by a substitute. The originally listed player did not appear and his replacement saw no game time either. The Defensive Specialist has to assume that there is some fine print allowing teams to make changes to the 22-man roster under exceptional circumstances.

The situation that unfolded in Canberra was stranger still because the replacement player was a coach. Michael Wells put down his stopwatch, stepped into the lineup and proceeded to go 3-8 with a double, 3 RBI’s and 2 runs scored. From an outsider’s perspective, it doesn’t make the league look overly professional when coaches can stroll in to the lineup to fill a hole. Without knowing exactly what went down during that series (injury, illness, domestic disharmony) it’s tough to argue that it was a bush league move, however the Defensive Specialist vows to get a ruling on it and report back ASAP.

From a concerned Sydney Blue Sox fan:

Hey D Spec,

I was interested in hearing your thoughts on the Blue Sox’ struggles at the plate to start the season. Our pitching staff is pretty legit but its asking a lot of them to hold teams to 1 or 2 runs per game since our hitters cant score any more than that at the moment.

Cheers

MJ

MJ,

For a team that’s 10-4 and atop the ABL standings, it’s interesting how much talk there is of the Blue Sox offensive woes. The Defensive Specialist has seen more of the Sox than any other team and has been doing quite a bit of thinking about their line-up of late mainly because with their  stellar pitching staff, they could legitimately take the league apart if the offense ever got going.

The great Ted Williams used to say that the hardest thing to do in sport is hit a round ball with a round bat squarely. He’s right on the mark with that statement! The Defensive Specialist has a couple of solid reasons why the hitting may be down:

Firstly the overall quality of pitching in the league is significantly better than what we saw last year in the Claxton Shield. Every team is able to run out at least 2 starting pitchers who would be deemed above average. Where last year teams could knock out the starter and then feast on the bullpen, teams are now able to roll quality arms out in relief making life tougher for hitters. The other noticeable difference is the uptick in velocity around the league – more guys are dialling it up, once again making it tougher on hitters who have to contend with greater changes in speed. The improvement is attributable to imports, greater involvement from Australian professionals and steroids.

(Ok that last point was a fabrication)

Another factor to consider is that teams are only playing 4 times per week with anywhere from 3-5 days in between series. Hitting is all about repetition and timing so only strapping it on a couple of times per week can play havoc with a player’s rhythm and comfort levels. For starting pitchers who are used to 5 days between starts this break in action is somewhat more manageable. You could say that hitters are somewhat underdone each week while going up against pitchers who are on a typical pitching rotation. That’s always going to create disparity.

While the above 2 paragraphs seem like sound reasons why a team may not be hitting, it doesn’t do much to explain how teams like Adelaide are hitting the cover off the baseball. It may be more helpful to take a look at the Sydney line up and see if the Defensive Specialist can identify any major issues. The first thing that stands out is that Manager Glenn Williams is not blessed with a significant amount of depth offensively meaning that he doesn’t have a plethora of sticks that he can turn to when one of his starters isn’t getting it done. There are 4 guys (Andy Graham, the Bossman, Alex Johnson and Stone Hands Maat) who are able to rotate through the catcher, first base, DH positions but other than those 4, the options off the bench have been Josh Dean and Trent Schmutter (who has been hot of late). This lack of depth has forced Williams to stick with the same guys who have just struggled to get it going.

Lets run down the line up and take a closer look.

1. Trent D’Antonio- The Defensive Specialist must admit that he enjoys watching D’Antonio hit, mainly because he gets in there and grinds it out (and doesn’t mind dishing a spray at the home plate umpire on strike 3 calls). As a lead off hitter D’Antonio has walked 11 times while hitting .280 for a solid .419 on base percentage that would please his manager. He has a solid split average-wise against lefties and righties (.295 / .273) and has been particularly effective with runners on base.

Grade: B+ 

2. Techno Tim Auty – It pains the Defensive Specialist to see one of Deep in the Hole’s favourite players scuffling with a .219 average. Rumours are swirling that Techno Tim’s increased focus on his dance career is detracting from his baseball. The Defensive Specialist prefers to believe that it is the fact that he drifts a little at the plate coupled with the increased quality and velocity of pitching that is making things a little tougher for him.

Grade: D (recent win in the World Electronic Dance Championships: A++)

3. Mitch Dening: Dening’s swing has caused stirrings in the Defensive Specialist’s loins for some time now. Sydney’s 3-hole hitter has not replicated the success he had last season but to be fair he leads the team in hard hit balls straight at the defence. Denings power numbers are down and all of his success has come off right handed pitching. In fact, he has had a rotten time against left-handed pitching this season with a paltry 1-16 performance which has lead Williams in recent times to move him down the order when a southpaw has taken the mound to decrease his exposure.

Grade: C

4. Stone Hands Maat – the big fella had a rock solid season last year and was expected to plug the 4 hole and drive in runs for the 2010 Blue Sox. Things haven’t gone quite according to plan, with Maat languishing at .171 with 17 punch-outs (in comparison Maat had 13K’s in 23 games last season). His slugging % (.244) and OBP (.261) are nowhere close to his career norms, which has to be alarming to his manager. The Defensive Specialist has mentioned previously that Maat has appeared to struggle catching up to the fastball which can be attributed to a) greater velocity around the league and b) his swing being longer than the Defensive Specialist remembers from years past.

Grade: F

5. Andrew Graham: Graham got off to a hot start last season and settled into a middle order run producer. This year Graham has yet to get things going at the plate which may be a clever developmental tool for his new managerial career – you know, tasting failure so that he can coach players through it, although that may be reading too much into it. Like Stone Hands, Graham seems to be susceptible to the firm stuff and has grown increasingly pull-conscious therefore exposing himself to offspeed stuff.

Grade: F

6. Alex Johnson: The man from parts unknown exploded onto the scene winning a player of the week award before cooling off in recent weeks. Johnson has shown glimpses of power as evidenced by his 3 home runs and 10 RBI’s but may now be a victim of his early success as teams pay more attention to his at bats and pitch him with greater caution. The key for Johnson is adjusting to this increased scrutiny from opposing pitching staffs which means he’ll need to hit the breaking ball.

Grade: B+

7. The Bossman: A young hitter playing on the big stage consistently for the first time, the Bossman has had some success driving the ball into the gaps but has not been a run producer as yet this season. He does seem to want to pull the ball at any given chance which is understandable considering that if he ever makes the big leagues it will be as a banger but this approach may be exposing him to breaking balls and the outside pitch.  His manager seems to be using him selectively against lefties and letting him get after right handed pitching which he is handling much better (albeit in a small sample size).

Grade: B-

8. Michael Lysaught: Despite leading the team in stolen bases, Lysaught has not done a great deal at the plate at all this season. He has managed only one extra base hit while striking out 16 times. He showed considerably more pop last year although the strike out has always been part of his modus operandi. Ordinarily a team can carry a light hitting middle infielder who provides defence, unfortunately the Blue Sox are carrying more than 1. Lysaught seems prone to expanding his strike zone, which sees him chasing out of the zone.

Grade: D-

9. Mark Holland: Holland was meant to be the light hitting infielder who provided solid defence at second base. He has had a tough time at the plate thus far this season and looks somewhat overmatched at times. Typically your 8 hole hitter would feast on fastballs as pitchers don’t want to mess around with the lower order but Holland has had trouble catching up, punching out 14 times in 15 games. While manager Williams would obviously love more from his second baseman, he could probably afford to carry him if the rest of his line up was producing at expected levels.

Grade: F

10. David Kandilas: One of the few bright spots in the Sydney line up, Kandilas has settled into the 9 hole and flourished, hitting at a .306 mark with 9 runs scored and an OBP of .422. While he hasn’t provided a great deal of extra base power he has shown a discerning eye (6 base on balls to the 9 hole guy is impressive considering most pitchers would rather get right after this spot in the order) and signs of speed. The tricky thing for Williams is whether or not to promote Kandilas up the line up when he is having such clear success where he currently is.

Grade: A

From that brief overview of the main players in the Sydney order, it is clear to see that they’re really suffering from the underperformance of guys who have truly deviated from their norms (Stone Hands & Graham and to a lesser extend Dening). If those 3 guys find a way to get it going again and the likes of Auty and Lysaught can provide just a little more, the line up could be formidable. Now if you add Trent Oeltjen to the mix, things get downright scary.

The upside to it all? The Blue Sox are 10-4 with a lights out pitching staff and the knowledge that good pitching beats good hitting almost every time.

Later this week – more less than reliable series predictions

Complex Algorithms

Alright, its that time of the week again when the Defensive Specialist sits down in front of the Deep in the Hole supercomputer, punches in a bunch of complex algorithms and generates a series of infallible predictions for the upcoming round of games. For two weeks straight now the level of accuracy has been astonishing…….ly bad. Seriously, if you happen to be a degenerate gambler then you really need to stop reading right now – the Defensive Specialist does not want to be held responsible for marriage breakdowns or forfeiture of assets as a result of bad betting.

Ok, with that warning the Defensive Specialist is ready to give it another crack.

Sydney Blue Sox Vs. Brisbane Bandits

Baseball returns to NSW this week and your old pal is ready for some live action again with the Blue Sox taking on the Bandits. Last week the teams split their series on Brisbane soil even though two Blue Sox players took out awards for their outstanding contributions; Chris Oxspring and Alex Johnson.  Oxspring has had more ink in this forum than any other player, but he keeps tossing out gems to the point that perhaps we should start referring to him as the jeweller. Last week’s one hitter was exactly what the Blue Sox needed after falling behind 2-0 in the series, and really halted any momentum the Bandits had going. The Defensive Specialist was unable to find out why he was held until game 3 of the series although logic suggests the first game of the double header being 7 innings meant that manager Glenn Williams could use him for the entire contest and save his bullpen. Expect that to occur again on Saturday as the teams play a double dip.

Johnson, the mystery man from parts unknown, dropped 2 bombs and racked up 5 RBI’s last week to propel himself to the top of the batting leader board. His improbable hot streak was predicted by an anonymous reader in this forum a week or so back who really should drop the Defensive Specialist an email revealing his or herself so that their powers of prediction can be used to prop up the Defensive Specialist. As with any newcomer to the scene, it will be interesting to see how he maintains his form as the league gets repeated looks at him.

The Blue Sox trail only the Bite as an offensive ballclub, but haven’t had stand out performances from the usual suspects such as Trent D’Antonio, Mitch Dening, Stone Hands Maat and Andy Graham. If these four guys are able to perform at their expected level the Blue Sox attack could be very dangerous. On a brighter note, Techno Tim Auty is back in the country fresh off his runaway victory at the World Electronic Dance Championships. His bat will be a welcome return to the 2-hole as will his 17000 beats per minute sound track.

They say that being crapped on by a bird is lucky so perhaps that’s what happened to the Bandits last week when they won 2 games against the heavily favoured Blue Sox. 

Look carefully at the picture and really zone in on the helmet

James Albury has provided two steady outings and appears to be a staff leader although his walk and strikeout totals do not fill the Defensive Specialist with hope. In fact, the entire staff seems to love the base on balls with Hiroki Yamada punching out 14 in 11 innings of work with 6 BB’s and Ryan Searle issuing 5 in 10 innings. If the starters keep providing additional outs, it makes it tough to stay in games. From an offensive perspective, Joshua Roberts and Wade Dutton (the recipient of the bird turd deposit) have led the way but there is still a long way to go as the team has the lowest run tally in the league and no one has left the yard yet which is a concern.

Prediction- Sydney needs the rest of its rotation to figure itself out with Wayne Lundgren uncharacteristically bad last week and David Welch getting knocked around for the second consecutive outing. Having said that, the Defensive Specialist expects the Blue Sox to recalibrate themselves and get right after the Bandits on their home turf. Blue Sox to win the series 4-0.

Adelaide Bite Vs. Perth Heat

Another series that was split right down the middle last week with the key difference this time around being the loss of a major Perth Heat bat – Luke Hughes. You don’t easily replace a 3-hole thumper like Hughes, especially since he had begun to Heat up. The Heat will hope to plug the hole and rely more heavily on imports Robbie Widlansky and Ronnie Welty while praying long term contributors Mitch Graham (.114), Allan de Sa Miguel (.182) and Matt Kennelly (.154) turn it up a notch as they take on the most explosive offensive team in the competition.

The Heat starting pitching is bolstered with the return to the rotation of Liam Hendriks who dealt last week and now has 9 strike outs in 7 innings of work with only 3 hits. Daniel Schmidt was cruising for the second week in a row until the bus broke down in struggle town and he was gang banged in one inning. The Heat bullpen has been a real strong point for them this season and they’ll need to be on point as they go up against the Adelaide squad.

The Q-Tip leads the way for the Bite hitting at a robust .441 clip with 4 long balls and 12 RBI’s. Backing him up are James McOwen and Brandon Bantz who have proven to be valuable additions to the squad in a short period of time. These three guys are absolutely critical to the Adelaide team, as their output has carried some fairly poor contributions from other key members.

On the mound the Bite have to be happy with what they’ve received from their big 3- Paul Midlren (1-1, 2.13 ERA), the ageless Darren Fidge (2-0, 3.21 ERA) and Dushan Ruzic (1-0, 1.98 ERA). Ryan Murphy and Wayne Oughs contributions have been solid out of the pen with Brandon Maurer expected to continue to improve. Adelaide’s pitching is heavily reliant on their starters extending in to the latter innings as the rest of their bullpen is somewhat suspect.

Prediction- The Heat head to the raucous Norwood Oval, minus a big bat, and with the Bite riding high after splitting on the road… the home crowd will propel Adelaide to a 3-1 series win.

Melbourne Aces Vs. Canberra Multiculturalists

The two worst offensive teams in the competition square off at Melbourne’s new home ground – the MCG! Ok that’s a white lie, they’re actually playing at the Melbourne Showgrounds which has been renovated to look and feel just like the MCG! The Aces will be happy to be in friendly territory and will hope that with some fan support they can make a dent in the win column.

Josh Davies has been the leading light for the Aces offensively, hitting at a .379 mark. Runs have been hard to come by and as a result no one jumps out of the stat sheet as a major producer. Justin Huber needs to dig deep and find something for his team as his anaemic 2-29 offering to this point is not helping the cause. At the outset of the season much bigger things were also expected of Matthew Lawman and Scott Wearne and the Japanese imports are staring down the barrel of a straight swap for a bento box (miso soup included) if they don’t start bringing something to the table.

You know your pitching staff is in a spot of bother when your starting catcher has the best ERA on the ball club (ok, that was a cheap shot, Grant Karlsen was obviously used in mop up duty during a blow out). Adam Blackley was much better in his second outing and Greg Wiltshire provided a quality start for Melbourne in his first appearance. Donovan Hendriks has not had the start he’d hoped for (8+ ERA with 1 strike out n 6 innings) and Norihito Kaneto is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in his 2 outings.  Surely one of the 16 coaches on the coaching staff has some expertise in pitching to fix this?

For the Multiculturalists Jun Hyeok Heo takes the ball in game 1 and at this point the Defensive Specialist doesn’t really know what to expect from him. In 3 starts he’s gone 1-2, striking out 10 in 12 innings while only walking 2. Steve Kent has made 3 starts for the Canberra team while only pitching 7 innings, which obviously brings the bullpen into play very early in the contest. Phil Brassington is pencilled in as a starter this weekend which always makes for interesting viewing since the knuckleball can be a hero or villain on any given day (or any inning for that matter). With Kent and Brassington in the rotation there is a chance that the bullpen will be tested and to this point it hasn’t been the steadiest part of the operation for manager Steve Schrenk.

Michael Collins continues to mash for the Multiculturalists although you’d love to see a little more pop from him. After his big numbers, things drop off with contributions from Tom Vincent and Nick Kimpton and then a barren wasteland. The Multiculturalists desperately need Didi Gregorious setting the table and greater contributions from Donald Lutz and the Korean contingent who should probably imagine the Melbourne hurlers to be Kim Jong-il and take out their rage on him.

Prediction- Ok, the Defensive Specialist is going big here and suggesting that the Aces spark up in front of their home crowd at the mini MCG and deliver a beat down on the Multiculturalists to take the series 3-1.

Dangerous

Iceman: You're everyone's problem. That's because every time you go up in the air, you're unsafe. I don't like you because you're dangerous.



Maverick: That's right! Ice... man. I am dangerous


That quote may in fact represent that most homo erotic part of the most non-intentional homo erotic movie ever made (oh you don’t believe your old pal? How about Mav delivering his retort and thoughtfully dusting off Iceman’s shirt at which point Iceman chomps his teeth!)– well until Point Break came along. Now the Defensive Specialist understands that a large proportion of the Deep in the Hole audience may have just punched their computer screen while screaming “No way Bodhi was gay!!” Watch the movie again – the main characters name was Johnny Utah, he jumped out of a plane without a parachute and landed on Bhodi’s back (a metaphor for unprotected sex)! The Defensive Specialist could keep going....


The reason for the Top Gun quote? Well the Defensive Specialist wanted to spend some time talking about the most dangerous hitters in the league today. We’re not talking about the best hitters in the league, we’re talking about those guys that opposing managers want nothing to do with late in the game with runners on. In the manager’s mind, these guys are unsafe, every time they come to the plate, they’re dangerous.


Before the Defensive Specialist parlays that awesome analogy into a baseball post, we should probably run through the Defensive Specialists series predictions to see how dialled in your dear writer has been lately in picking horse flesh:



Melbourne Aces Vs. Canberra Multiculturalists


The Defensive Specialist called a 2-2 result and low and behold we got a 2-2 split. Both teams have to be happy to get off the schnide and open up the W account. As predicted, it was a scrappy affair with a number of games heading to extra innings but both managers will be pleased that every game was competitive(although Phil Dale may be scratching his head over the state of his pitching staff).


Sydney Blue Sox Vs. Brisbane Bandits


Series prediction was 3-1 to the Blue Sox. Actual result was a 2-2 split. The Defensive Specialist did not anticipate the Bandits kicking the front door down and putting Wayne Lundgren to the sword in game 1 or hanging tough for 12 innings in game 2. Chris Oxspring restored order to the universe in game 3 by reeling off a 1 hitter in game 3 to continue his dominance.


Adelaide Bite Vs. Perth Heat


The Defensive Specialist picked a 3-1 victory to the Heat. The Bite further weakened the Defensive Specialist’s credibility by winning 2 games and splitting the series. Another tight series saw both teams battle it out in 3 of the 4 games, including a walk off Johnson in the 12th inning of game 3.


The lesson learned from all of this? At no stage should you go to your local casino and bet your mortgage on any of the Defensive Specialists series predictions!



Righto, let’s get back on track and start talking about hitters that managers want no part of with the game on the line. The Defensive Specialist needs to put a few parameters on this thing before a raft of angry emails and comments come in stating that “Manager X pitched around hitter Y in the last series which means he must be super dangerous and you’re and idiot for not mentioning him”. Every team has a hitter that you don’t want beating you, but not every line up has a guy that you genuinely worry about giving them anything close to the strike zone in a leveraged situation. Think about Barry Bonds in his homerun mashing hey day – in 2004 he was INTENTIONALLY walked 120 times, including 4 in one game and ended the season with 232 base on balls.


Since the majority of hitters in the ABL are young, we can’t expect Popeye strength but we are looking for hitters with genuine home run power and the ability to drive the ball. There is a difference in pitching to a guy who can line a ball over short for a knock and a guy who can drive a ball over the street behind the fence. Already the list of hitters with this ability is shortening but for the sake of this exercise, let’s take a look at some of the most dangerous hitters in the ABL and figure out who is the most dangerous.


Nick Kimpton – Baseball fans will recall a couple of years ago Kimpton set the Claxton Shield on fire offensively while playing for the Perth Heat. While being a solid contributor for the Multiculturalists so far this season, Kimpton is not a guy who strikes fear in the opposing managers heart as he isn’t the long ball threat and is susceptible to left handing pitching.


Mitch Dening – Loyal readers will be well aware of the Defensive Specialists man crush on Dening’s left handed stroke but even though they say love is blind, you’re old pal is cognizant enough to know that at this stage of his career, Dening doesn’t have the pop to be considered the most dangerous. What he does have is a line drive / doubles swing that with time (and man strength) may develop into a consistent home run stroke. It’s probably too early to call it, but the dude on the Blue Sox who does look a little frisky is Alex Johnson who has emerged from parts unknown to launch 3 bombs and lead the team in RBI’s. Perhaps he is basking in the “who the F is this guy, let’s see if he can hit my fastball?” glow young or new hitters often experience early in their careers. Once pitchers figure that he can hit the fastball and start mixing up their offerings, we’ll get a better read on Mr Johnson.


Justin Huber – On paper he ticks all the boxes but at the present moment 2 for 29 isn’t causing heart palpitations in the opposition dugout.


Robbie Widlansky – The import lefty looks the real deal, leading the team in hitting and demonstrating doubles power however there may not be the juice to be a consistent long ball threat.


Luke Hughes – You don’t get to the big leagues on good looks alone and while Hughes is a decent looking cat, he also has some ability with the bat. Hughes has power to spare at this level but after a lengthy lay off due to injury, he’s just beginning to find his way again as evidenced by his 7 punch outs.


Ronnie Welty – Yes, the Defensive Specialist knows that he has just rattled off 3 Heat players but Welty has the chops to be on this list and was given rave reviews by a number of readers in attendance at the last series. The12th inning walk off effort in game 3 was described as ”one of the hardest and furthest hit balls I have ever seen at Barbagallo Park” which is quite the statement when you consider that balls have to be clobbered to get out of that place (especially to left centre where it exited).Welty does also have an 18 homerun season on his resume in professional baseball which helps back up some of the hyperbole.


James McOwen – You dont often see lead off guys on a “Most Dangerous” list but McOwen has started with a bang and warrants mentioning. Aside from hitting .400, he has an on base percentage of .462, scoring 7 and driving in 9 with 2 home runs.


Quincy Latimore – the Q Tip has decided that playing baseball in Australia is agreeable to his swing with 4 long balls, 3 doubles, 12 RBI’s and 9 runs. If he decided to walk a little more (only 2) his on base percentage would be considerably higher than .482.



So who’s the most dangerous hitter in the league right now? It has to be the Q Tip who is making short work of ABL pitching and provides a legitimate long ball threat every time he comes to the plate. The scouting report on him reads a little like this:


Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. I ask Jobu to come, take fear from bats. I offer him cigar, rum. He will come.

Now obviously most young hitters don’t fare overly well against good breaking stuff and Latimore is no different. Having said that with the winning run on second would any manager think to pitch to Latimore in the hope that their pitcher can snap off a couple of quality breaking balls to beat him? Probably not, and that’s why we’re crowning him the most dangerous.

Taking Offense

If Friday night’s conditions were balmy, Saturday’s conditions could only be described as “like sitting inside an oven next to a leg of lamb”. Yes it was hot and juicy and of course the Defensive Specialist dressed appropriately in jeans, t-shirt and shirt. For all the Defensive Specialist’s big talk about preparedness and mental focus, it was a real rookie mistake to forget to check the bureau of meteorology for game time temperature. There were a couple of upsides to the spike in temperature – 1) the Defensive Specialist got to sweat off a few unwanted pounds and 2) we finally got to see what the offenses could do in optimal hitting conditions.

If you asked both managers what aspect of their game they’d like to see get going, you can be sure it would be offense. While the output was a little better in game 2, the vast majority of the heavy lifting was being completed by the upper parts of both line-ups. In a league that’s showing the early signs of being pitching dominant (well perhaps not in Melbourne), 2 or 3 guys aren’t going to get it done for you on the offensive side of the ball. Every team will rely on their entire line-up to grind out at bats, lengthen out innings and get into the bullpens. So with the heat fairly taxing, it was going to be interesting to see how the pitchers laboured through it and whether the hitters could capitalise on the warm night air and get the scoreboard ticking over.

Wayne Lundgren took the ba…..

Oh, you wanted to know about the catchers pop up during infield outfield? It’s becoming a hot topic as once anonymous coaches now realise they’re under the microscope at a totally different level. Sure it’s easy to pretend you’re coaching the hell out of it at first or third base, but what does that really consist of? A few pats on a hitters backside when he draws a walk? Waving a runner home with 2 out on a line drive to right field? That stuffs all easy. No, the true test of a coach is when he has all eyes on him as he attempts to drop a dime piece on home plate to finish infield outfield.

You can probably guess that things didn’t go well last night by the fact that the Defensive Specialist wasn’t even going to bother mentioning it. The Defensive Specialist happened to bump into the Multiculturalists trainer last night who mentioned off-handedly that coach Brent Phelan had asked if there were any valium available in the medical kit – so you can see how this scrutiny is affecting coaches.

The Defensive Specialist isn’t sure if Phelan managed to get his hands on the drugs but his fungo hitting was slow and sluggish and after 3 attempts at hitting the dime piece it appeared he may fall asleep at home plate. The 4^th attempt proved to be a little more fruitful with yet another cut backhand arching back towards the screen and only barely staying in.

Blue Sox coach Jason Popsicle was up next and it was clear that he was suffering acute performance anxiety – a lack of firmness and stamina being the tell tale signs. His attempts at the pop up were flaccid and unsatisfying with the first attempt sailing out of play and the second attempt simply horrible. A fellow spectator asked the Defensive Specialist how Popsicle could rectify his anxiety issues? Its not easy but focussing on his breathing is one method and of course as the time comes to perform, gentle pressure to the perineum always helps.

The Defensive Specialist isn’t able to attend Sunday’s game, which may ease the pressure on the lads. If either coach sticks the pop up inside the catchers cut out photographic evidence will be required to verify it because at this point its almost unbelievable.

Wayne Lundgren took the ball for the Blue Sox who decided to alter their line up for this game 3 contest.  Stone Hands Maat got the start behind the plate, which made the Defensive Specialist feel like a driver on the freeway when you approach a car crash. You know that you don’t want to see anyone hurt or injured, but you cant help looking anyway. Alex Johnson was the other change, making his ABL debut at first base. Lundgren handled the Multiculturalists with ease in the first but more importantly nothing clanked off Stone Hands glove!

The Multiculturalists sent Steve Kent to the mound and manager Steve Schrenk had to hope that he could extend him out past the 2 innings he offered on his last outing. Things got off to a rocky start as Trent D’Antonio mashed a double to straight away centrefield and Techno Tim Auty walked. Mitch Dening, who very nearly suffered an orchiectomy at the hands of Andy Graham on Friday, smoked a line drive to centre that allowed D’Antonio to move to third. Stone Hands ended the threat by grounding into a 4-6-3 double play.

Michael Collins started the 2^nd with a hard hit ground ball off Michael Lysaught’s glove for a single. Tom Vincent hit a soft liner to left and Donald Lutz grounded out 6-3 to move the runners up. Ian Choy grounded out to second to plate run and put the Multiculturalists up 1-0.

Kent was replaced by 57-year-old knuckleballer Phil Brassington in the 3rd inning and things didn’t get off to a great start when he dosed David Kandilas. The Defensive Specialist did find Kandilas’ reaction somewhat odd – an almost angry bat toss. David, you’re the 9 hole guy and Brassington was throwing no firmer than 79mph, strong chance that there was zero intent. Anyway once the rage subsided, D’Antonio walked to put runners on first and second with none out. The stadium lights then suddenly began to strobe as green lasers shot out into the sweltering night sky. When 14000 beats per minute started thumping out of the speakers the fans knew it was time to reach for their whistles as Techno Tim Auty headed to the dish. Brassington was obviously a little breathless from the Vicks Vaporub fumes in the air and tossed a wild pitch that moved both runners up. Auty then punched a single to left to score Kandilas and move D’Antonio to third. Techno Tim then capitalized on a bobbled throw and moved into second base. Brassington still punch drunk on the fumes uncorked another wild pitch that scored D’Antonio and advanced Techno to third. Brassington called out the trainer and took a strong pull of smelling salts to clear his head and showed immediate results by K’ing Dening and Stone Hands. Andy Graham then singled into left to score Techno, and Johnson was brought to the plate looking for his first ABL knock. Graham got a great read on a ball in the dirt and advanced to second to put him in scoring position. Johnson then lined a ball into right as Graham was waved home. Collins realised that he had no play and wisely charged the ball in order to make a play on Johnson who was thrown out at second to end the inning.

The Blue Sox were all over Brassington in the 4^th and only bad base running prevented another big inning. Lysaught led off with a walk and Mark Holland followed with a single. Kandilas then lined a ball into centre as Lysaught headed toward third. Coach Graheme Cassel held Lysaught up but Holland had his head down and was looking to go first to third. He was nailed attempting to scramble back to second. Collins then gunned down Kandilas on a steal attempt. The inning was not a complete loss however as a wild pitch enabled Lysaught to score taking the run total to 5.

Lundgren’s night was done after 5 innings with a line including 4 strikeouts, 1 earned run and 2 base on balls. He was replaced on the hill by Shane Benson. Collins singled for his 2nd hit of the night to rightfield and Vincent hit a ball off Benson that Lysaught couldn’t handle for a base hit. Lutz doubled to right field as Collins got a bad read and broke late for home. With Vincent on his hammer, Schrenk waved both runners home. A nifty relay from Kandilas to Lysaught saw Collins safe but Vincent hosed at the plate. Benson used that base running gaffe to his advantage and ended the inning with no further damage.

The wheels of the bus well and truly came off for the Multiculturalists in the 6^th inning, which began with a lazy throw from Moon on a ground ball by Kandilas resulting in an error. Kandilas stole second as D’Antonio punched out on a Michael Lennox fastball. Kandilas stole third on the next pitch leaving him perched on 3^rd for Techno Tim. Auty grounded a ball to Moon at third who came home. Kandilas didn’t slide and knocked the ball out of the glove of new catcher Kyle Perkins who may benefit from some time spent in the weight room. Auty moved up to second. Dening then lined a ball to left field that Lee charged and dove head first for. He speared the ball barely and instantly earned himself the Defensive Specialist’s “Play of the Game” award.

With 2 out Stone Hands singled to right field and pinch hitter Josh Dean walked. A wild pitch allowed Auty to score and moved the runners up. Johnson and Lysaught both walked as Luke Wilkins was brought into the game to stem the bleeding. This lasted all of one pitch as Holland drove a ball to deep left field. The one hop double plated all 3 Blue Sox baserunners and brought Kandilas back to the plate. Kandilas hit a can of corn to rightfield that Vincent inexplicably dropped allowing Holland to score and Kandilas to hustle into second. D’Antonio singled to centre, scoring Kandilas and advanced to second as all sense of baseball fundamentals were lost on an airmailed throw to the plate. Auty had an infield single to put runners on third and first for Dening. Dening slapped a ball up the middle that second baseman Andrew Schmidt dived and snared forcing Techno at second. Inning mercifully over after 8 runners crossed the plate.

The Multiculturalists scored some scrub time runs in the top of the seventh off Benson as Schmidt and Didi singled to right. A Moon fly ball to right advanced Schmidt who then scored on Michael Collins 3^rd base hit. Benson punched out Vincent to end the 7^th, which ended up being the final frame as the announcer declared the game over as a result of the ten run mercy rule. Thank god!

Blue Sox manager Glenn Williams will be thrilled that his lineup got the bats going, especially his lower third who hadn’t shown much until this point. Lundgren wasn’t overwhelming but his outing demonstrated again that the Blue Sox pitching staff is going to be its real strength this season. The Multiculturalists were exposed as being somewhat thin in the pitching stakes once you get past their starters. With Kent restricted in his innings it means that the bullpen has to get a lot of outs and they just do not have the quality arms to go at a line up like the Blue Sox. Schrenk will need to find a way to get more out of his starters and spare the pen from overexposure.

As for the Deep in the Hole ‘Player of the Game”? It’s a toss up between Techno Tim, D’Antonio and Holland. Lets go with D’Antonio  who continues to set the tone at the top of the lineup with 2 hits, a run, 2 walks and an RBI.

The Defensive Specialist’s duties as a family man preclude him from being in attendance on Sunday, but do not fret he will be back during the week with more sparkling insight.

Good luck to Phelan and the Popsicle today with less pressure on the dime pieces.

Balmy Balmy Night

The only things that could have made viewing conditions better at the Blue Sox Multiculturalists clash on Friday evening would’ve been a steady supply of pina coladas and a Thai massage (no happy ending necessary). As late afternoon turned to dusk and the field became bathed in a warm golden light (look at your old pal getting all poetic on the readers right there!), the Defensive Specialist leaned back in his well located seat, surveyed the surroundings and decided that it really doesn’t get much better than this from a baseball viewing perspective.

While we’re on the viewing experience, the Defensive Specialist had the opportunity to chat with a buddy who’d been at the Brisbane Bandits home opener on Thursday night. Interestingly he said that if he hadn’t  been at the league launching game last week he would have rated the Brisbane experience as quite good. However, the Blue Sox experience really stood out for him with components that worked for all range of fans – kids, parents and baseball purists. Another interesting aside gleaned from his travels is that the ABL seems to be operating a cash-only economy. If you’re the type of person who only carries plastic then you’re going to be in a world of hurt and look like a degenerate when you have an armful of merchandise and not the prerequisite $495 in cash needed to seal the deal. Fortunately the Defensive Specialist always rolls with fat wads so he’ll be fine (did that just set the Defensive Specialist up to be jumped in the car park?).

Anyway, back to the game.

As you know, the Defensive Specialist applied the print equivalent of a blowtorch to both teams’ coaches responsible for infield outfield, and more specifically the catchers pop-up, in the past week. Both efforts last week were best described as feeble and while that may have been acceptable in the amateur Claxton Shield, we’re now in the big boys league and excellence is demanded. Canberra took the field first and coach Brent Phelan showed physical signs of being rattled with some less than stellar fungo work. When it came time to nail his dime piece, he tried unsuccessfully to covertly wipe the sweat off his hands – clear signs that his nerves had got the better of him. The ball toss looked ok but when it came to contact, well put it this way if he was playing tennis the cut backhand that resulted would have been exceptional. Unfortunately such a shot on the baseball diamond results in the ball heading out of the stadium rapidly. Phelan knew that he didn’t have the intestinal fortitude for another attempt and exited the playing field hastily.

Rumour has it that Blue Sox coach Jason Pospishil (that name NEVER gets any easier to spell and always auto corrects to popsicle so from now on its going to be Jason Popsicle) had spent the entire week working on his dime piece. The fungo work looked crisp and clean during the innie outtie but the proof would be in the pudding when it came to the money shot. Popsicle didn’t look as physically rattled as Phelan but stress doesn’t always manifest outwardly and who knew how badly his insides were twisting. To the untrained eye it would appear that Popsicle arched his back and put a good hack on it. To the Defensive Specialist’s acute eye Popsicle had a slight nerve induced micro twitch a nano second before contact. Although he managed good height, the slight hitch in his swing caused him to be late on the ball which sent it straight back. Although it stayed in the yard and in line with the plate, catcher Andy Graham snared it right on the screen which is barely acceptable at this level.

If things don’t improve on Saturday night, the Defensive Specialist may have to convene an emergency dime piece hitting session! The Blue Sox take the win in this contest but it’s a cheap W and one that you don’t tell your friends about over a beer.

The week break in between games gave both managers the flexibility to reuse their staff aces. Blue Sox skipper Glenn Williams seized that opportunity and wheeled his pitching coach Chris Oxspring back out to the mound. Oxspring was looking to replicate his first outing which would once again enable him to tell the rest of his pitching staff that he still has it and that they should all do it exactly as he does. The Multiculturalists had changed up their line-up offensively by adding the dangerous bat of Michael Collins and adding a new second baseman from parts unknown Tylor Purdhomme.

The Sydney in game entertainment crew has received positive reviews in this forum but perhaps does not get enough credit for the psychological battles they wage on opposing hitters. You’ve heard of hitters having walk up music as they approach the plate – typically a hitter will pick a song they like or that fires them up. Well the Blue Sox crew go the opposite direction and play the schmaltziest and schlockiest tunes they can find in the hope that it’ll drain every ounce of testosterone out of the hitters and prevent them from getting the ball out of the infield.

That approach definitely worked with Didi and Moon who both feebly grounded out to second but Nick Kimpton proved to be smarter than your average bear by stuffing toilet paper in his ears and then punching a ball into the 5.5 hole that Michael Lysaught couldn’t make a play on. Collins succumbed to the musical hypnosis and ended the inning by grounding out 4-3.

J.H Heo took the ball for the Multiculturalists and decided that his first ABL start was the perfect time to bust out his shiny white spikes with Velcro tabs instead of laces. This is a bad look on so many levels A) these shoes should only be worn by 65+ year olds at a lawn bowl match and B) nowhere in the baseball fashion universe does it say that white spikes are acceptable with an orange and black uniform. The baseball Gods will have their revenge the Defensive Specialist predicts!

Both pitchers cruised through 2 innings surrendering only 1 hit apiece (Heo gave up a crushed double by the Bossman to the right centre gap in the second) At the start of the third inning the Blue Sox in-game entertainment came crashing down with a dumb game that had 2 kids racing to put on oversized uniforms. It dragged on for what seemed like an hour and felt like a women’s change room at a major department store during a 75% off sale. It was so bad that it scrambled the announcing team who left Trent D’Antonio’s walk up music running during his at bat. Fortunately it happened to be the Defensive Specialist’s favourite band – Pearl Jam and inspired D’Antonio enough that he hammered a first pitch fastball out of the yard for the Blue Sox’s first run. Techno Tim pulled a double down the left-field line just as his lasers and 11,000 beats per minute walk up routine was turned off. Heo was on the ropes, but fortunately for him Mitch Dening has chosen a walk up song that is fairly soft to start with so he has to take a long slow walk to the plate in order to draw the song out enough until it gets to the macho part. This gave Heo enough time to regroup and get Dening on a 4-3 groundout.

The Multiculturalists struck back in the top of the 4^th when Nick Kimpton crushed a homerun to right. Kimpton broke out a somewhat disjointed homerun trot which appeared to be the result of the toilet paper in his ears getting caught in his spikes. Donald Lutz came up with a chalk raising double down the left line and Tom Vincent plated him with a  single to leftfield. As Lutz chugged for home there was a moment of indecision when Andy Graham weighed up blocking the plate and trying to back hand a short hop (and being steamrolled by Lutz who is a solid unit) or clearing out and avoiding all contact. He decided to avoid all contact, which was disappointing because Lutz Vs. Graham would have been the meeting of two immoveable objects.

The Blue Sox were at it again in the 5^th. David Kandilas led off with a firm line drive to right for a single and D’Antonio walked. Multiculturalist manager Steve Schrenk had seen enough and went to his pen, bringing in Jung-Min Lee. As Lee finished his warm up, the lights suddenly cut out and 13000 beats per minute came over the loud speakers. The fans leapt to their feet as the following instructional video was shown on the jumbotron. Yes, it was Techno Tim Auty time! Auty punched a ball through the infield for a single to load the bases. Dening unsuccessfully mugged his way to the plate, yet again denying the crowd a chance to hear the cool part of his song, but made up for it by belting a long drive to the right centre gap that hopped over the fence for a ground rule double plating two runners. Stone Hands Maat put an excuse me check swing on a ball to short that scored Techno and moved Dening to third. A scary moment took place when Graham scorched a line drive down the third base line that smashed in to Dening as he took his lead. For a second the Defensive Specialist thought the ball had struck Dening directly in his baby makers but when he promptly popped up the Defensive Specialist realised that his testicles had not been ruptured and the blow had been to the leg. Graham walked, which lead to Lee’s night being over. Lefty Chris Morgan relieved and despite not cracking 82mph managed to punch out the Bossman and Lysaught to end the inning.

Those 3 runs were enough for Oxsping who decided that he wasn’t going to give up anything else on the day and locked down the Multiculturalists through to the 8^th inning. Korean catcher Sung-Woo Jang who wears so much body armour when hitting that it would make more sense for him to walk into a pitch than try and hit it punched out. Purdhomme grounded out to second, which brought Didi Gregorious to the dish. Gregoriuos has had difficulty making solid contact in his 7 at bats to commence the season but this appeared to have changed when he lined a ball to left. Unfortunately it was close to 10pm and Techno Tim had to start making preparations for his 4am club arrival. Techno charged hard to his left on the fading liner, launched himself so that he was horizontal to the ground and snagged the ball out of the air. The crowd exploded to their feet and simultaneously broke out into the running man in celebration. For that display, Techno Tim receives the Defensive Specialist ‘Play of the Game’ for the second game running (man).

Dae Sung Koo was summoned from the pen in the 9^th and closed out the contest comfortably for his second save in as many opportunities to secure the victory for the Blue Sox.

Oxspring was dominant once again, travelling 8 innings, giving up 2 runs and striking out 7. Offensively Techno Tim paced the attack with 2 knocks along with the Bossman and Dening who led the way with 2 RBI’s. Manager Williams would still be concerned that his lower order is offering nothing in the way of offense and that Stone Hands and Graham aren’t providing much in the middle order. Having said that, if his starting pitchers keep doing what Oxspring is doing, they’ll only need to score a couple per game to be competitive. As much as The Defensive Specialist wants to give fan favourite Techno Tim the Deep in the Hole ‘Player of the Game’ award, that honour has to be bestowed on Oxpsing who is proving to be a force to be reckoned with.

The Multiculturalists will be thankful to see the back end of Oxspring as they head into game 2 as Wayne Lungren takes the ball for the Blue Sox against lefty Steve Kent .