102 Days

102 Days....

That’s how long your old pal has been off the interweb much to the chagrin of the loyal readership. That’s more time off than someone on long service leave! There’s a plethora of conspiracy theories as to why the Defensive Specialist has been absent floating around so this is probably the best forum to debunk a number of them:

No – the Defensive Specialist was not leading Seal Team 6 in the hunt for Osama Bin Laden.

No – the Defensive Specialist was not busy creating the wedding gown for Kate Middleton.

No – the Defensive Specialist was not working with the Australian Prime Minister to draft the new carbon tax.

In all honesty, the Defensive Specialist was side tracked by a 10-month-old baby who decided that she flat out did not enjoy sleeping. Long time readers probably just regurgitated their morning lattes hearing the news that one of the games sharpest minds was waylaid by an infant. In response to your snort, the Defensive Specialist offers this statement:

“There is a reason why sleep deprivation is used as torture”

Anyway with the sleep issues now in the past, the Defensive Specialist thought it was time to ease himself back into the drivers seat and start pumping out some content. Today, lets take a look at a couple of Aussies in the big leagues.

Luke Hughes

Back when the Defensive Specialist used to write more, you may remember a post outlining how tough Hughes plight was going to be playing the role of utility man. Inconsistent at bats makes keeping ones swing fine-tuned pretty tough to do. Fortunately Hughes managed to pick up some regular playing time before being demoted back to AAA. The stint in the minors lasted briefly and Hughes was back in the show playing predominantly at first base but also filling in around the infield. The thing that really stood out in the early days of Hughes season was his steadfast desire to get on the fastball ASAP (and who can blame him, it beats the hell out of flailing against hellacious breaking stuff). The downside to this approach is that you don’t really give yourself much of a chance to walk resulting in a paltry on base percentage. While Hughes is not being confused with Rickey Henderson of late (second all time base on balls), the number of pitches he is seeing each at bat is increasing which means he’s either developing more of a discerning eye or his manager has gone all junior baseball on him and told him not to swing until he has a strike!

Josh Spence

Spence was the second person from the 2010 MLB draft called to the big leagues, which is pretty damn impressive when you consider the feat. Making things more interesting is that he doesn’t fit the mould of a “quick to the big leagues” reliever. Instead of a polished power arm, Spence comes at hitters from numerous arm angles with an array of breaking balls and a reliance on touch, feel and command. In 12 appearances Spence has allowed a solitary run (a big fly to Andre Either of the Dodgers) while punching out 7. It seems he’ll play the role of LOOGY (lefty one out guy) meaning that he’ll take on the opposition’s big lefty bats late in the game. The Defensive Specialist is intrigued to see if Spence can survive as a reliever without power stuff at the big league level.

Before the Defensive Specialist develops RSI from all this typing, it’s important to make you aware of an outstanding show featuring the San Francisco Giants currently playing in the US. Called “The Franchise” it chronicles the Giants trials and tribulations during the 2011 season. So far the Defensive Specialist has only been able to find the show on YouTube. Check it out:

Send in the S.W.O.T Team (Part 3)

Apologies for the lack of activity last week – the rigours of travel and a Luke Hughes vigil consumed the Defensive Specialist’s time and prevented any form of creative output. Hughes is obviously getting a lot of press at the moment with his scorching hot Spring Training (second in homeruns and RBI’s) but the Defensive Specialist wanted to spare a paragraph or two to discuss his plight.  For those of you unaware, Hughes is currently in a battle to win the utility infielder role with the Minnesota Twins.  His plight seems to resonate with the Australian baseball community because we’ve not seen a position player earn a roster spot out of Spring Training for some time and because it would be totally cool to have an Aussie hitter on a big league roster with some regularity!

Ideally what you’re looking for in a utility guy is someone who plays multiple positions (to cover for injury and provide a rest to the regulars) and who can swing it a little. While his manager indicated that he’d never be a gold glover, he’s given Hughes time at second, third, leftfield, first base and short stop to get a real look.  The knock against him is that he doesn’t profile as a guy who could handle shortstop (primarily due to a lack of range and arm) but that may be purely academic as the Twins have other options to mitigate that problem. If you scan big league rosters, the back up infielder is generally an “all field, no hit” type of player so Hughes flies in the face of this by being more offensively minded which provides another weapon to his skipper.

Baseball fans will know all of the above so as per usual, the Defensive Specialist wants to take things a little deeper by discussing just how tough it is to play the role of a bench guy. If you look at Hughes’ numbers this spring, you’ll see that he is at the top end of at bats on the Twins. This indicates that he’s getting plenty of game time and the repetitions necessary to keep his bat going. And herein lies the rub – as a bench guy, he may only play 2-3 times per week meaning that it will be tougher to find a rhythm and stay in tune with his swing. No measure of batting practice makes up for the daily live pitching that regulars see. If Hughes takes an 0-4 in AAA, he’s back in the line-up the next day ready to make amends. At the major league level, he may sit on that 0-4 for a couple of days before he gets a chance to get back out there which makes it very difficult to work out the kinks and maintain any semblance of timing.

The Defensive Specialist doesn’t raise this point to poo poo his effort – the fact is, being a bench guy is a tough job that requires a special sort of resilience to be ready when the manager pencils your name in. Of course, the 400k+ salary makes swallowing that pill a little easier!

All right, lets get back on track and continue the in-depth SWOT analysis that your old pal has been cooking for a few weeks now. Today’s instalment is probably the Defensive Specialist’s favourite section – Opportunities. In this component, its time to look at the avenues the ABL could take to improve and grow the competition moving forward.

The Defensive Specialist has mentioned it repeatedly but it bears stating again – television coverage. Telecasting the Grand Final series and doing it well highlighted the opportunity to take the game to a wider audience if done properly. As much as it pains the Defensive Specialist to say it, its pretty obvious that trying to broadcast every game would be financially ruinous, but strategically showing big games, key matchups or final series is definitely a way to market the competition. The Defensive Specialist has spent plenty of time thinking about the best format to showcase the game on TV and surely it has to be a “game of the week” and then a highlights type show that is lighter on content but higher on razzle dazzle. The benefit of doing something like this is that it reduces the cost (a game of the week requires only one crew and on air talent), which then allows a more polished production. The ultimate goal of this strategy is to capture the casual observer and keep baseball front of mind for the kids who the ABL desperately need to draw into the game.

Expansion. On one of the Defensive Specialist’s many jaunts to New Zealand over the past 6 months there was a back page news story on softball, which referred to Baseball New Zealand’s quest to have a team in the ABL. With 6 teams currently in play in Australia’s largest markets there is a definite opportunity to expand into other regions such as New Zealand, Asia and regional Australia. Logical expansion destinations would include northern NSW and New Zealand (although that would be a killer road trip from Perth). Asia is probably the biggest jewel in the expansion crown due to the passion incited by baseball in that region and the money that sponsorship and crowds could generate.

Playing more games is a definite opportunity for the ABL, and arguably it’s the lack of games that currently prevents some of the better MLB professionals being sent down under to get their offseason works in. If the ABL could present 5-6 games per week and effectively recreate a professional environment (in terms of volume of games) then there is significant value to prospects participating in the competition. Obviously there is significant cost and effort involved in staging that many games per week for each team as well as travel and accommodation expenses but the opportunity to be a premier offseason league is not too far off. The benefit of having higher profile prospects taking part is that they bring with them “higher ups” from their respective clubs, which has the carry on effect of exposing more Australians to the eyes of key decision makers.

With year one under the belt and reasonably solid crowd numbers in play around Australia, there is a definite opportunity to ramp up the marketing and suck more and more kids into the sport. Baseball saw fantastic growth in the halcyon days of the first ABL with teeball seeing robust participation rates. Now is the time to leverage the ABL by pumping up the profiles of local talent, promoting our professionals and showcasing Australian Major League players to junior competitions. It’s obviously tough promoting the ABL when the season runs through the school holidays and the offseason (the time when school visits and camps would normally be conducted) sees our talent ship off to their US seasons, but nonetheless, the time is right to promote the game hard and jack up the number of kids taking part.

The carry on effect from this marketing is a growth in crowd numbers. Increased promotion to children as well as a television presence will surely increase the number of punters pushing through the turnstiles. More fans in the stands equals greater club profitability, which allows teams to invest both on and off the field and improve the product.

Leverage the relationship with Major League Baseball and run more sanctioned events like camps and coaching seminars. Flying out a couple of MLB stars, running educational coaching sessions or conducting skills camps is only going to benefit the game. The ABL was successful in using mostly home grown coaching staffs but how much access does the average coach have to their skills and expertise? Imagine having an MLB hitting or pitching coach run a session on their specific skill set and the value it would bring to the Australian baseball community? It’s these big ticket names that will draw more and more people to the ball park and inspire kids, coaches and parents to be involved in the game.

The Defensive Specialist promises to come back with the 4^th instalment in a more timely fashion – unless of course Luke Hughes lands himself a starting gig, then all bets are off. As usual, if the Defensive Specialist has missed any opportunities, hit the comments section below.

East Coast V West Coast

“You done put two of America's most wanted in the same

motherf*ckin place at the same motherf*ckin time” – Tupac Shakur

Much like the world of hip-hop there is a contentious relationship between the east coast and west coast when it comes to baseball in Australia. Granted you’re unlikely to see players gunned down in drive-by’s ala Biggie and Tupac but that doesn’t mean that rivalries aren’t fierce and full of venom. As one of the few transcendent figures in Australian baseball, the Defensive Specialist manages to straddle the void and successfully wear both caps. Despite hailing from the left coast, don’t think for one second that the Defensive Specialist wasn’t secretly pumped that the Sydney Blue Sox finished the regular season in first place. Why you ask? Home finals right underneath the Defensive Specialist’s highly trained nose! As hard as it is to comprehend, the world of baseball blogging isn’t as lucrative as you are often led to believe meaning that the Defensive Specialist was staring down the barrel of no more baseball if the Sox didn’t end up in first place. While the Defensive Specialist was holding out in the hope that MLB would recognise the mass fan appeal and fly the Defensive Specialist around the country, the Blue Sox 3-1 series win over the Multiculturalists negated any need for Bud Selig to open his wallet.

Of course the other upside to a major semi final being held in Sydney is that the Defensive Specialist gets to relate comprehensive breakdowns to the masses! And as the Tupac quote at the start of the blog suggests, we have the two best teams (Perth Heat & Sydney Blue Sox) in town making things extremely tasty. Obviously the series predictions earlier in the season were an absolute abortion but as the old saying goes “if at first you don’t succeed…. keep firing away until you eventually get it right or get it really close to being right”. The season series ended in a split with both teams sweeping on the road, so the head to head result makes it tough to identify a clear favourite. It’s these situations that bring out the best in the Defensive Specialist – now more so than ever is an opportune time to run through both teams and determine who has the best shot to head straight into the big dance. Let’s run through each position and see who holds the edge (Biggie / Blue Sox or Tupac / Heat).

Catcher

Blue Sox catcher Andy Graham’s season ended when his pinky exploded in game 1 of the Multiculturalists series. Since he was hitting well below his weight, it was an opportune time to insert Pat “Stone Hands” Maat into the line up. This would have been all well and good if it was January 2010 when Stone Hands was tearing up the Claxton Shield, but unfortunately it’s January 2011 and he’s sputtering along at a .196 clip with a strikeout per game and next to no power. The other option for the Sox is Trent D’Antonio who’s seen some time behind the plate but pulling him from 3^rd tends to open up other holes in the Sydney line up.

Allan De San Miguel sat over .300 for the vast majority of the season only to see his average dip as the grind of 40 games wore on him. Playing in all 40 games, the Perth catcher posted a .286 average with 5 homeruns and 26 runs scored, and became a fixture in the 2 hole. Backing up De San Miguel are the Kennelly brothers (Tim and Matt) who provide Manager Brooke Knight with incredible depth and flexibility as all 3 backstops are solid defensively.

Edge: 

 

First Base

Sydney manager Glenn Williams was lucky to avoid criminal charges last week as the Australian Baseball Hall of Fame reported a break in and mysteriously a non-mummified Brendan Kingman made an appearance for the Blue Sox. While circumstantial evidence had Williams the lead suspect, investigators couldn’t find any hard evidence to back their case. Either way, you know times are tough when you have to wheel a fossil out to fill a hole. Fortunately the old guy can still roll the pole as evidenced by his 5- 11 showing with 2 bombs. Josh Dean has come on of late and has provided a reliable option at either first or third, especially with the Bossman sidelined by injury.

Matthew Kennelly spends the vast majority of time at first base for the Heat and in 2010/2011 it could be said that he enjoyed his break out season. While not showing the power levels you’d normally expect from a first baseman (2 homeruns), he did manage to drive in 24 runs while scoring 27 and batting .306. Defensively he submitted an errorless season.

Edge: 

Second Base

It’s tough to get the edge in a positional matchup when you’re going up against a guy who made it to the big leagues in the past 12 months. For the Heat, Luke Hughes mans second base and despite only playing half a season managed to bop 5 homeruns and score 16 runs. While he may never be known as a slick defender, Hughes’ bat more than makes up for any defensive deficiencies he may have.

Hard to hang with a big leaguer

For Sydney, second base is a wide-open gaping hole from a production standpoint. Mark Holland received the vast majority of playing time there this season with Shannon Pender grabbing some AB’s late in the season. Either way, Williams will hold his breath and hope for a random knock here and there and pray that their defence contributes something to the cause as neither bat can be relied upon.

Edge: 

Third Base

If not forced into action behind the plate, D’Antonio provides solid defence and a gritty lead off hitter for the Blue Sox. The lefty swinger wouldn’t be overly pleased with his season totals (.239, 20 runs scored)  but he grinds at bats, walks a ton and can steal a base here and there. If he’s asked to catch, Josh Dean gets a shot at the hot corner and while he’s not as good defensively, his bat has really been playing up of late.

The Heat run out Evan McArthur to third and despite being absolutely allergic to taking a walk, he did provide some offensive grunt with 7 home runs and 20 RBI’s. Defensively he impressed the Defensive Specialist earlier in the year with some nifty glove work and an ability to make the big play.

Edge: Tie

Shortstop

Michael Lysaught scuffled through most of the regular season both offensively and defensively but started to get hot in January – just when it started to count (.355 average). Lysaught paced the team in runs scored with 22 and popped 4 homeruns. The downside is that he struck out 39 times and posted an on base percentage of .291. Defensively he shows good range but his 11 errors are much higher than manager Williams would have hoped for.

Speaking of porous defence, Perth’s Mitch Graham had his share of miscues with 13. He did lead the Heat in RBI’s (25), which is interesting because he spent a large part of the season hitting out of the 9-hole.  Graham did start the season leading off, but an ice cold November and December saw him cast down to the depths of the line up which obviously agreed with him as he reeled off an impressive January (.359 average, 9 RBI’s). Like Lysaught, he really has a knack for punching out (42 in 38 games) but his pop and speed provide a valuable asset at the tail end of the order.

Edge: Tie

Part 2 Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning. Adelaide Vs Melbourne Wednesday night / Thursday morning

Dangerous

Iceman: You're everyone's problem. That's because every time you go up in the air, you're unsafe. I don't like you because you're dangerous.



Maverick: That's right! Ice... man. I am dangerous


That quote may in fact represent that most homo erotic part of the most non-intentional homo erotic movie ever made (oh you don’t believe your old pal? How about Mav delivering his retort and thoughtfully dusting off Iceman’s shirt at which point Iceman chomps his teeth!)– well until Point Break came along. Now the Defensive Specialist understands that a large proportion of the Deep in the Hole audience may have just punched their computer screen while screaming “No way Bodhi was gay!!” Watch the movie again – the main characters name was Johnny Utah, he jumped out of a plane without a parachute and landed on Bhodi’s back (a metaphor for unprotected sex)! The Defensive Specialist could keep going....


The reason for the Top Gun quote? Well the Defensive Specialist wanted to spend some time talking about the most dangerous hitters in the league today. We’re not talking about the best hitters in the league, we’re talking about those guys that opposing managers want nothing to do with late in the game with runners on. In the manager’s mind, these guys are unsafe, every time they come to the plate, they’re dangerous.


Before the Defensive Specialist parlays that awesome analogy into a baseball post, we should probably run through the Defensive Specialists series predictions to see how dialled in your dear writer has been lately in picking horse flesh:



Melbourne Aces Vs. Canberra Multiculturalists


The Defensive Specialist called a 2-2 result and low and behold we got a 2-2 split. Both teams have to be happy to get off the schnide and open up the W account. As predicted, it was a scrappy affair with a number of games heading to extra innings but both managers will be pleased that every game was competitive(although Phil Dale may be scratching his head over the state of his pitching staff).


Sydney Blue Sox Vs. Brisbane Bandits


Series prediction was 3-1 to the Blue Sox. Actual result was a 2-2 split. The Defensive Specialist did not anticipate the Bandits kicking the front door down and putting Wayne Lundgren to the sword in game 1 or hanging tough for 12 innings in game 2. Chris Oxspring restored order to the universe in game 3 by reeling off a 1 hitter in game 3 to continue his dominance.


Adelaide Bite Vs. Perth Heat


The Defensive Specialist picked a 3-1 victory to the Heat. The Bite further weakened the Defensive Specialist’s credibility by winning 2 games and splitting the series. Another tight series saw both teams battle it out in 3 of the 4 games, including a walk off Johnson in the 12th inning of game 3.


The lesson learned from all of this? At no stage should you go to your local casino and bet your mortgage on any of the Defensive Specialists series predictions!



Righto, let’s get back on track and start talking about hitters that managers want no part of with the game on the line. The Defensive Specialist needs to put a few parameters on this thing before a raft of angry emails and comments come in stating that “Manager X pitched around hitter Y in the last series which means he must be super dangerous and you’re and idiot for not mentioning him”. Every team has a hitter that you don’t want beating you, but not every line up has a guy that you genuinely worry about giving them anything close to the strike zone in a leveraged situation. Think about Barry Bonds in his homerun mashing hey day – in 2004 he was INTENTIONALLY walked 120 times, including 4 in one game and ended the season with 232 base on balls.


Since the majority of hitters in the ABL are young, we can’t expect Popeye strength but we are looking for hitters with genuine home run power and the ability to drive the ball. There is a difference in pitching to a guy who can line a ball over short for a knock and a guy who can drive a ball over the street behind the fence. Already the list of hitters with this ability is shortening but for the sake of this exercise, let’s take a look at some of the most dangerous hitters in the ABL and figure out who is the most dangerous.


Nick Kimpton – Baseball fans will recall a couple of years ago Kimpton set the Claxton Shield on fire offensively while playing for the Perth Heat. While being a solid contributor for the Multiculturalists so far this season, Kimpton is not a guy who strikes fear in the opposing managers heart as he isn’t the long ball threat and is susceptible to left handing pitching.


Mitch Dening – Loyal readers will be well aware of the Defensive Specialists man crush on Dening’s left handed stroke but even though they say love is blind, you’re old pal is cognizant enough to know that at this stage of his career, Dening doesn’t have the pop to be considered the most dangerous. What he does have is a line drive / doubles swing that with time (and man strength) may develop into a consistent home run stroke. It’s probably too early to call it, but the dude on the Blue Sox who does look a little frisky is Alex Johnson who has emerged from parts unknown to launch 3 bombs and lead the team in RBI’s. Perhaps he is basking in the “who the F is this guy, let’s see if he can hit my fastball?” glow young or new hitters often experience early in their careers. Once pitchers figure that he can hit the fastball and start mixing up their offerings, we’ll get a better read on Mr Johnson.


Justin Huber – On paper he ticks all the boxes but at the present moment 2 for 29 isn’t causing heart palpitations in the opposition dugout.


Robbie Widlansky – The import lefty looks the real deal, leading the team in hitting and demonstrating doubles power however there may not be the juice to be a consistent long ball threat.


Luke Hughes – You don’t get to the big leagues on good looks alone and while Hughes is a decent looking cat, he also has some ability with the bat. Hughes has power to spare at this level but after a lengthy lay off due to injury, he’s just beginning to find his way again as evidenced by his 7 punch outs.


Ronnie Welty – Yes, the Defensive Specialist knows that he has just rattled off 3 Heat players but Welty has the chops to be on this list and was given rave reviews by a number of readers in attendance at the last series. The12th inning walk off effort in game 3 was described as ”one of the hardest and furthest hit balls I have ever seen at Barbagallo Park” which is quite the statement when you consider that balls have to be clobbered to get out of that place (especially to left centre where it exited).Welty does also have an 18 homerun season on his resume in professional baseball which helps back up some of the hyperbole.


James McOwen – You dont often see lead off guys on a “Most Dangerous” list but McOwen has started with a bang and warrants mentioning. Aside from hitting .400, he has an on base percentage of .462, scoring 7 and driving in 9 with 2 home runs.


Quincy Latimore – the Q Tip has decided that playing baseball in Australia is agreeable to his swing with 4 long balls, 3 doubles, 12 RBI’s and 9 runs. If he decided to walk a little more (only 2) his on base percentage would be considerably higher than .482.



So who’s the most dangerous hitter in the league right now? It has to be the Q Tip who is making short work of ABL pitching and provides a legitimate long ball threat every time he comes to the plate. The scouting report on him reads a little like this:


Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. I ask Jobu to come, take fear from bats. I offer him cigar, rum. He will come.

Now obviously most young hitters don’t fare overly well against good breaking stuff and Latimore is no different. Having said that with the winning run on second would any manager think to pitch to Latimore in the hope that their pitcher can snap off a couple of quality breaking balls to beat him? Probably not, and that’s why we’re crowning him the most dangerous.