East Coast V West Coast (Continued)

Continued from East Coast V West Coast

For those of you to time poor to read part 1, the count currently sits at 3 Tupac’s, 0 Biggie Smalls and 2 Ties. On we go…..

Leftfield

For the Heat, professional hitter Robbie Widlansky has been a consistent force across the vast majority of the season. While the left-hander has shuffled across a number of positions (1B & DH), he seems to have a found a home in leftfield. While his bat has played as a true corner outfielder (extra bases and run production), scouting reports suggest that defence isn’t necessarily his first priority. Despite hating his baseball glove, Widlansky’s offence has more than carried the load, finishing second in runs scored (30) and first in doubles (15) while posting a .402 OBP.

As much as the Defensive Specialist would love to see it, there is next to no chance of Techno Tim Auty making an appearance for the Blue Sox in the finals series. In his place, Utter Club Nutter Trent Schmutter has been a surprise package with his .316 average and .396 OBP out of the 2-hole.

Edge:

Centrefield

Mitch Dening surely spends countless hours in front of his bathroom mirror asking himself where things went wrong in 2010 / 2011. Last year he was an all-conquering middle of the order threat for the NSW Claxton Shield team and this year he’s hitting .201 with only 4 homeruns and 19 RBI’s. The Defensive Specialist would like to suggest that he’s struggling against lefties but a quick look at his splits shows that he struggling against anything that’s thrown over hand!

Being hotter than hellfire in January

The Heat’s centrefielder Ronnie Welty had his own share of troubles through November and December, hovering around the .200 mark with sporadic power and an inconsistent approach. A source informs the Defensive Specialist that Welty sat down with a clean sheet of paper and drew up a detailed list of New Year resolutions. On top of his list was “Hit the cover off the baseball” which is exactly what he did in January, reeling off 21 hits in 34 at bats including 5 homeruns, 3 doubles and a ridiculous 17 runs scored. Let that be a lesson to you people – “As it is written, so it shall be!” The January tear took Welty’s numbers to an impressive level with 10 homeruns, 30 runs and 24 RBI’s.

Edge:

Rightfield

It seems like only yesterday that the Defensive Specialist was sitting at game 1 of the ABL season watching David Kandilas gun down a Multiculturalist base runner at third base on a line from rightfield. Kandilas had a solid season hitting out of the 9-hole, posting a .274 average with more walks than strikeouts. As mentioned his arm in rightfield is a true weapon and will have Heat manager flashing the stop sign at runners on hard hit balls to right.

Returning from the prestigious Arizona Fall League, Tim Kennelly took a little while to find his stroke but put together a solid January that featured 3/4 of his home runs and 2/3 of his RBI’s. Employing the rarely seen Mickey Tettleton batting stance Kennelly has settled into the lead off position for the Heat and has played rock solid defence in rightfield.

Edge:

Designated Hitter

Alex Johnson appeared from parts unknown and would have to be the absolute favourite for Rookie of the Year if the entire player contingent wasn’t new and therefore all rookies. Johnson made a dent on the league from his first appearance and became a middle order mainstay for the Blue Sox, leading the team in RBI’s (26) and homeruns (7). Despite wearing the ugliest shoes in the league, Johnson has been a polished run producer for Manager Williams and will need to carry a large load in the playoffs.

The Heat seemed to have settled on a platoon at the DH position with Ryne Price getting AB’s against righties and Assistant General Manager Lachlan Dale threatening Knights job security if he doesn’t get the start against lefties. Price seems to have a knack for coming up with big knocks late in the game while Dale traded in his polo shirt and slacks towards the end of the season to play in 6 games and hit .412 with 7 RBI’s.

Edge:

Starting Pitching

Welch playing the roll of Robin

The Blue Sox have a four-headed monster with each starter capable of playing the role of staff ace. Staff leader Chris Oxspring was simply dominant through the first 2 months of the season, carving up opposing lineups and averaging just over a strikeout per inning. January has been less friendly to the righty with a 0-2 record (with his worst outing yielding a no-decision) and 10 earned runs surrendered. After returning from elbow surgery, it is safe to assume t there may be an element of fatigue setting in.  Lefthander David Welch was playing the role of Robin to Oxspring’s Batman for the majority of the season but roles may have been reversed as Welch has statistically surpassed his pitching coach. Welch posted a 5-0 record with a 1.44 ERA while only walking 9 hitters in 62.1 innings.  Wayne Lundgren’s season has been a step back from what he achieved last year and his 4-4 record and 5.30 ERA would disappoint him. The tall righty was significantly more hittable in 2010/2011, which may reflect a down tick in pure stuff. Craig Anderson rounds out the starting pitching and its now officially ok to refer to him as crafty. The southpaw gets it done by going “slow, slower’ slowest” and used that approach to go 3-2. 2.23 ERA in 44.1 innings.

It’s at this point that a big question mark needs to be inserted for the Perth Heat. With the departure of a couple of arms, the Heat starting rotation has relied on imports from the local competition to get the job done. Daniel Schmidt has been the one constant going 6-3 with a 2.97 ERA while seeing his “stuff” improve as the season has progressed. With the playoffs consisting of only 3 games, Manager Brooke Knight can really use the ‘Johnny Allstaff” approach to filling out the remainder of his rotation. Warwick Saupold has been solid in his last 2 outings and ring-ins Trevor Caughey and Matt Zachary have made fantastic contributions when they’ve been available. Import Cole McCurry was not given a start in last weekend’s series which is an indication that he’s at his innings limit for the season.

Edge:

Bullpen

Koo closing it out

At the back of the Blue Sox pen, Dae-Sung Koo has been everything that was advertised. The cagey lefty appeared in 18 games while posting 12 saves and producing a 1.00 ERA. Koo provides Manager Glenn Williams a lights out closer that locks down ball games. The Sydney pen has really not been stretched as the starters have gobbled up so many innings but quality arms like Matthew Williams and Rich Thompson provide a bridge to Koo. Vaughan Harris and Todd Gratton have both been serviceable in relief.

The Heat also have a dominant arm to finish games off in Brendan Wise who has 3 saves in 4 appearances without surrendering a run. The departures of Brett Jacobsen and Tyler Anderson has depleted the pen but rubber armed Liam Barron, Ben Grice and Cameron Lamb appear to be the go-to guys in middle relief. Grice has proven to be particularly effective against right-handed hitters with his funky side arm delivery and Frisbee slider. If McCurry is restricted in innings, he provides another quality arm out of the pen, albeit in limited doses.

Edge:

Prediction

Look, you all know the Defensive Specialist’s track record on the prediction front has been brutal, but by systematically working through each position and finding which team has the edge, things should be significantly easier and more accurate…. Yeah right.

The Heat have a fearsome offensive lineup that bangs 1 through 9 and seems to be hot at just the right time. With legitimate long ball threats in the heart of the line up, the Heat are capable of putting a beat down on any team. The big worry has to be the starting pitching which lacks a true “Ace” presenting a major concern in a 3 game series. Think about it - if you can role out a stud you’re almost guaranteed one victory. With that under your belt you can then throw everything and the kitchen sink at the opposition to get W number 2. The Heat lacks the lights out starter who can promise them that. After Schmidt the rest of the rotation has the look and feel of a kindergarden finger painting – a mismatch of colours and shapes and really smudged. The Defensive Specialist doesn’t even know for sure who’d get the ball in game 2 and the chances are it could be some bloke pulled directly out of the State League competition.

Sydney is in the exact opposite situation to Perth. Manager Williams knows he can send Oxspring and Welch to the mound with a rock solid chance at getting a win. He then has the luxury of choosing between Lundgren and Anderson to start game 3 and use the unlucky starter out of his pen if necessary. With Koo at the back end and some solid relievers he has a lock down staff at his disposal that proposes real challenges to opponents.

Unfortunately you have to score at least one more run than your opponent to win and the Blue Sox lineup isn’t always guaranteed to generate a large amount of run support. Alex Johnson has been the only real constant and he’ll need some assistance on the big stage and under the bright lights of playoff baseball. The biggest concern for Williams has to be his offense and who’ll provide the spark.

With both teams so diametrically opposed it makes things tough to call. In times like these wise heads fall back on experience and since the Defensive Specialist is the wisest head of them all lets go with the old adage “good pitching beats good hitting”.

Unfortunately Casey Stengel said, “Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice versa”.

Ok, the Defensive Specialist needs to lay them on the line. With Sydney at home and with Oxspring and Welch at the front of the rotation, the Blue Sox will win the series in 2 games.

Melbourne & Adelaide to follow before Thursday’s games.