It’s not going to be easy to replicate the complex
imagery and metaphors the Defensive Specialist conjured for the Blue Sox / Heat
post over the past two days, especially since Melbourne and Adelaide don’t
share the same level of vitriol that an east / west rivalry presents. When you
couple this with the fact that the Defensive Specialist has seen the Bite play
once and has never laid eyes on the Aces, trying to predict a winner becomes
even tougher. Fortunately you’re not dealing with any mere mortal here at Deep
in the Hole – when in doubt your old pal falls back on his trusted gut instinct.
On paper the result looks fairly straightforward – the
Bite took 7 out of 8 from the Aces over the course of the season and play host
to the Melbournians in the minor semi final. Home field advantage + regular
season dominance = Adelaide win.
Ok, so leaving it at that would make for a fairly
boring post. Let the Defensive Specialist
run through both line-ups and see which team wins the positional battle (Jaws
/Adelaide or Maverick / Aces).
Catcher
Import Brandon Bantz handles the tools of ignorance
for the Bite, but despite a hot start his production has tailed off as the
season’s progressed (including an 0-20 in mid January). Nevertheless Bantz
still managed to bop 8 home runs while driving in 26. The 7 errors have to be a
concern for Manager Tony Harris, especially when you consider that it’s not
like the Bite staff are loaded with hard to handle pitchers. The return of
Quincy Latimore and James McOwen allows Bantz to drop lower in the line up and
alleviates some of the stress placed upon him.
The festive season may have been a little bigger than
his manager would have liked because before the Christmas break Grant Karlsen
was flirting with .400. Upon return to the diamond he suffered through a
painful January (4-34 and 5 of his 7 strikeouts)) which dragged his average
down almost 100 points. Despite his struggles Karlsen provides a solid lower
order bat that puts the ball in play and can drive the ball out of the yard
from time to time.
Edge: Tie
First Base
It was widely speculated that Justin Huber would take
the ABL by storm in 2010 / 2011. Unfortunately things got off to a woefully
sluggish start and he’s scuffled pretty badly all season. While he did hit 9
home runs and drive in 29 the Defensive Specialist is sure that he would have
expected more. Despite a down
season, he still provides an imposing bat in the 4 hole and is definitely
someone that opposing managers do not want to mess with.
Scott Gladstone appears to be the man at first base
for the Bite and although not a prolific power bat he did manage to put up some
tidy numbers – particularly in January when he hit .372.
Edge:
Second Base
Last year the Defensive Specialist openly questioned
second baseman Josh Cakebread’s value offensively as he posted anaemic numbers
with the bat. The move to a grander stage has obviously agreed with him as his
production has increased substantially with a .277 average and 17 runs scored
in 21 games. Cakebread isn’t going to drive the ball out of the yard but his
ability to get on base in the 9 hole makes the top of the line up more potent
and his defence at second base has always been highly valued.
Matthew Lawman plays the role of punchless second baseman
in this series with a disappointing .193 average on the season. Making matters
worse he also tallied 12 errors on the season, which makes it tough to justify
sending him out there. Manager Phil Dale will be hoping that he can either provide
stellar D or get the bat going. Even better do both!
Edge:
Third Base
Lanky lefty Stefan Welch was expected to be a prime
time contributor for the Bite in 2010/ 2011 and while the 7 home runs and 25
RBI’s suggest that he played his part, the .201 batting average, .298 OBP and
league leading 42 strikeouts paint a different picture. Manager Harris looks to
have settled on him in the 2 hole which may be a smart move as it will likely
present him with better stuff to hit as opposing pitchers work to avoid putting
him on in front of McOwen and Latimore.
Josh Davies seems settled at third for the Aces and
while he shared the lead league in errors (14) his bat played reasonably well.
Hitting .307 he drove in 27 while scoring 28. An aversion to taking a free pass
saw his OBP sit at .335 and his high strikeout tally (41) can end a big inning.
Edge:
Shortstop
Much like Cakebread, the Defensive Specialist dogged
Jeremy Cresswell fairly heavily last season from an offensive perspective.
Being the big man that the Defensive Specialist is, now seems to be an
appropriate time to acknowledge that Cresswell has been a revelation
offensively this season. With McOwen being the big bat in the lineup, Cresswell’s
resurgence at the plate allows Manager Harris to lead him off and use McOwen in
the middle of the order. Cresswell led the league in runs scored, contributed 5
homeruns and drove in 23 while hitting .278. Defensively he was somewhat of a
sieve at shortstop, leading the league in errors but if he continues to score
runs at the rate he is, the miscues can be overlooked.
The Aces stocks at shortstop were enhanced with the
return of James Beresford (Baseball America Article – also featuring Luke Hughes). Beresford slotted right into the leadoff position and has provided a
spark by hitting .404 with 8 runs in 12 games).
Edge:
Tie
Leftfield
Quincy Latimore blew the league up in the first month
of the season but saw his production wane in January. You know you’re having a
good season when you can hit .219 in January and still finish the season at
.313. A late season hamstring strain saw the Q-tip miss some time and may lead
to him appearing more at DH than in the field. If Latimore goes to DH, Ben
Wigmore is thrust into the fray in left. Wigmore has always been a professional
hitter and although his output was not as impressive as in years past, he is
still a dangerous bat to have lower in the order. Defensively he is scary in
leftfield and Manager Harris will hold his breath on balls hit out that way.
When the Aces Japanese contingent departed our fair
shores, the hole left by Yoshiyuki Kamei in leftfield was substantial.
Fortunately Manager Dale was able to recruit Paul Rutgers to fill the void.
After a hot start Rutgers finished the regular season with a .311 average, 4
long balls and 17 RBI’s in 22 games.
Edge:
Centrefield
Elliot Biddle has staked ownership of the centrefield
position for Melbourne. Appearing in 17 games he has scored an impressive 16
runs while hitting .313
 |
| MVP candidate McOwen |
The Bite have themselves a legitimate MVP candidate in
centrefielder James McOwen who led the league in home runs while driving in 30
and scoring 29. McOwen’s en fuego January has forced his manager to move him
from the lead off position to the 3-hole in order to capitalise on his production,
which makes the Adelaide line-up even more damaging.
Edge:
 |
| MVP candidate Russell |
Rightfield
Tom Brice seems to have found his niche on rightfield
for the Bite and it’s amazing what you can do when you find your happy place! A
.314 clip with 7 homeruns, 26 RBI’s and a .439 OBP is just what you want from
your right fielder.
If James McOwen is the Bites MVP candidate, Andrew
Russell flies the flag for the Aces. Buoyed by a ridiculously hot December,
Russell cranked out 46 hits in 2010 /2011 with 9 doubles and 7 bombs along with
27 RBI’s and 25 runs.
Edge:
Designated
Hitter
It looks like Latimore will take the majority of at
bats here, but if he’s good to go health wise look for Harris to hide Wigmore’s
glove and insert him here.
The Melbourne designated hitter role looks likely to
be filled by left handed hitter Scott Wearne. The nuggetty infielder hit .270
on the season with 4 home runs and 25 runs.
Edge:
Starting
Pitching
The Defensive Specialist has discussed the Adelaide
staff in this forum before and most would agree that it has been somewhat of a
let down from pre season expectations. Red hot Brandon Maurer capped an
outstanding January with a 1 hit shut out of Brisbane over 7 innings (the one
hit came on the first batter of the game). He’d have to be considered a sure thing in the Bite playoff rotation,
which leaves Mark Brackman, Dushan Ruzic and Paul Mildren battling for the last
2 spots. Mildren has taken the ball every series and the veteran would surely
be inserted into the playoff rotation based on his history and previous
performance. His 2010/2011 season has been a let down with a 2- record and 4.58
ERA but he is a proven guy and wont be phased under playoff pressure. That
leaves Dushan Ruzic and Mark Brackman to fight it out for the last start. Ruzoc
went 5-2 with a 4.07 ERA while Brackman posted a 2-1 record with a 3.40 ERA.
Its not like the Aces don’t have much to choose from –
after all they did wheel out 25 different arms to the mound this season. Tetsu
Nishikawa has been handed the ball regularly towards the end of the season and you’d
assume he’d get a start in the post season after going 2-0 with almost a K per
inning. Lefty Adam Blackley led the team in innings pitched and managed a 3-3
record although his 5.31 ERA would have to disappoint him. Import Jeff Jamnik
has taken the ball late in the season but his stuff has been cannon fodder as
his 1-3 record and 8 ERA attests to. Greg Wilstshire is 4-0 for the Aces but he
too has been rather expensive, giving up 22 earned runs in 34 innings and Shane
Lindsay has made a couple of starts lately with limited success.
Edge:
Bullpen
The Melbourne bullpen is a wasteland of bloated ERA’s
and walk totals (which may have a lot to do with the fact that they play in a
shoebox for half their games). Manager Dale really doesn’t have a go-to arm,
especially with Adam Bright no longer available. If Wiltshire, Jamnik or
Lindsay miss out on a start they’ll obviously feature heavily in the pen along
with Nicholas Martin and the recently appearing Russ Spear.
The ageless Darren Fidge started the season in the
rotation but his durability has proven to be an advantage out of the pen for
Manager Harris. With a leftover starter available for relief duties the
Adelaide relief corp is definitely strengthened and much deeper. The late
season addition of Adrian Burnside and Tom Becker helps but the remainder of
the arms down there have had less than stellar seasons.
Edge:
With the Bite having the edge in 7 of the 11
categories (with 2 ties) it’s almost a no brainer to state that they’ll win
this series. The Melbourne pitching is in such a state of flux that is hard for
the Defensive Specialist to imagine that it can contain the potentially
explosive Adelaide line up. If the Bite hurlers can contain the top of the Aces
line up its hard to see the Aces being able to put one in the win column.
Of course with all of the Defensive Specialist’s
predictions, take this one with a fairly large grain of salt!
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