The Big Dance

So here we are, Grand Final week – the Big Dance! The Defensive Specialist finds himself sitting in a New Zealand hotel pouring over line ups, statistics, scouting reports and tea leaves trying to find an edge. Of course both managers (Knight & Harris) have desperately sought the Defensive Specialist’s insight which has made a business trip to our neighbour timely as it would be unfair to assist one team over another. Buoyed by the successful series prediction last week (don’t kid yourself, your old pal was concerned after David Welch tossed a no no), the Defensive Specialist is ready to break down the series and spell out a winner for one more time this season.

 

With the series going live to air on cable television, it’s a big weekend for the ABL and baseball in general and nothing would be better than an action packed contest that stretches over 3 games. Both teams have a legitimate shot at the title and in a move away from the norm, both teams would be considered offensive ball clubs first and foremost. Following on from last week’s winning formula, let’s take a look at what factors could win or lose it for each team:

 

Why Perth will lose

 

2 weeks off without baseball is never a good thing! The inactivity will allow the pitching staff to freshen up but the last thing a highly functioning offense wants is a lengthy break – and in baseball 10 days is an eternity. You can play all the simulated games and two pitch you want but the best way to keep the bats hot is to swing them in anger. Manager Knight has to be anxious about the layoff and the effect it will have on his hitters timing. 1 through 9 the Heat line up had been popping and this break has the potential to put a number of the bats on ice. Sure a hitters may have found their way into local competition line ups but there is a significant difference in the sloppy seconds they’d be seeing down there from a pitching perspective and the higher level offerings they’ll see in the ABL

 

Why Adelaide will win

 

Momentum. We’ve discussed how powerful having the “MO” in your dugout can be and the Bite are riding a wave of it after taking it in the back passage in game 1 of the Preliminary finals and then storming back with 2 courageous wins to claim the series. Anytime you steal a 15 inning barn burner on the road you thank your lucky stars and look for your next challenge. Perth saw its own momentum stifled by a 2 week break and will need to get an early jump on the Bite to regenerate the buzz they built up after sweeping the Blue Sox on the road.

 

Why the Heat will win

 

They’re playing at home! Ok, that doesn’t guarantee the series win like you’d expect. The Heat were a .500 ballclub at their home park this season and decidedly better on the road. Earlier in the season, Manager Knight indicated that he liked his team on the road because they were free of the distractions and commitments generally associated with playing at home (work, study, family etc). Getting away as a unit is beneficial because the only focus is baseball. You’d like to think a thumping crowd plus a grand final series provides the edge that the Heat should have by being at home.

 

Why Adelaide will lose

 

Inconsistency around their pitching staff. Mark Brackman looked shakier than bambi on ice in game 1 of the preliminary finals which may have been a splash of bad luck or simply because his anus cramped under the bright lights of playoff baseball. The Adelaide trainer will be working around the clock to keep him loose so that the Bite doesn’t get a repeat performance. Brandon Maurer has evolved into the ‘sure thing’ for Manager Harris and it is somewhat surprising that he didn’t get bumped up to game 1. After these guys it looks like Paul Mildren gets the ball in game 3 but there is no certainty there.

Maurer has been a 'sure thing' for the Bite

Why Perth will lose

 

Uncertainty around their pitching staff. We know Daniel Schmidt will get the ball in game 1 and the lefty has shown that he deserves the honour. After him, it’s a bit of a crapshoot and you can be sure that Manager Knight has spent plenty of time this week calling local competition coaches asking if he can borrow their imports (Caughey & Zachary). Caughey has been a revelation for the Heat in limited appearances and if he is available Knight can then employ “Johnny Allstaff” to fill out game 3. If he isn’t available God only knows who gets the ball in game 2 which is a huge concern this late in the season.

Daniel Schmidt gets the ball in game 1

 

Why Adelaide will win

 

Because they bang! The Defensive Specialist knows that you shouldn’t start a sentence with because but it is as simple as that. Jeremy Cresswell, a rejuvenated Stefan Welch, Jamie McOwen, Quincy Latirmore, Brandon Bantz and Tom Brice give the Bite a legit 1-6. Cresswell works the count and grinds out AB’s, Welch is a nice 2 hole hitter who feasts on fastballs and McOwen, Latimore, Bantz and Brice provide the grunt. Not much in the way of a let up in that group which will definitely tax the Heat staff.

McOwen leads the Bite offensively

Why Perth will win

 

Because they bang harder! Based on end of season form, it’s safe to suggest that the Heat go 9 deep (which also sounds like the title of a porn film). The season numbers may not show it but a line up of:

 

1. Tim Kennelly
2. Alan De San Miguel
3. Luke Hughes
4. Robbie Widlansky
5. Evan McArthur
6. Ronnie Welty
7. Matt Kennelly
8. Lachlan Dale / Ryne Price
9. Mitch Graham



Luke Hughes needs to keep his eyes open and BANG

Is pretty damn solid and brings the noise! While the Bite line up drops away from 7 through 9, the Heat attack is unrelenting, especially with Graham finding form late in the season. Against the Adelaide pitching staff, the Heat offense could explode. 

 

So who is the this baseball brain putting his weight behind in the 2011 ABL Grand Final? The Defensive Specialist will be fidgeting in his first class international seat on the flight home tomorrow evening, eager to get in front of the television (pending a late call from ABL CEO Peter Wermuth asking for the Defensive Specialist’s expertise on the broadcast) to watch these two offensive minded ball clubs tee off on each other. When your old pal gazes into his crystal ball he sees the Heat taking game 1, Maurer maintaining his hot streak to guide the Bite to a victory in game 2 and the local boys rallying to win game 3. Perth Heat inaugural ABL champions!