- Rock solid analysis: CHECK
- In-depth research: CHECK
- Numerous hours of study: CHECK
- A healthy dose of gut instinct: CHECK
Baseball is one of those sports that can totally
derail a player if he can’t ride the storm and keep his emotions in order. As
you can imagine the Defensive Specialist is unwavering in his self-belief but
still turned to a mentor to get an assessment of the state of play:
Defensive Specialist: “I’m concerned that my analysis
is off the mark”
Mentor: “It’s not”
Defensive Specialist: “But I’ve faltered on numerous
occasions this season”
Mentor: “You’ve got to keep swinging the bat my young apprentice”
Mentor: “You’ve got to keep swinging the bat my young apprentice”
Defensive Specialist: “I could be in a slump”
Mentor: “Stop that. In the words of the great Kanye
West – Wait til you get your money right”.
And with that, the Defensive Specialist felt a sense
of calm. If the Defensive Specialist keeps doing the hard yards, the universe
will correct itself and the Defensive Specialist will be an unstoppable force
once again.
With Adelaide visiting Sydney this weekend, let the
Defensive Specialist channel Kanye and tell you why each team can win and lose
this contest.
Why
Sydney will win:
Starting pitching. The Defensive Specialist feels like
a broken record having spoken about the combination of Oxspring, Welch,
Lundgren and Anderson ad infinitum this season but the fact is, no team can
line up 4 front line guys like them. Of course the spanner in the works here is
that Oxspring has been pushed into the bullpen in an effort to prepare himself
for spring training. His departure dents things somewhat for the Blue Sox but
the vast majority of teams would take a three headed monster featuring Welch,
Lundgren and Anderson. Welch really is the key this series as he presents the
best chance of a win for the Blue Sox. His season has been flat out dominant and
he has shown that he can lock down even the best hitting teams. Manager Glenn
Williams will be counting on Welch getting a win and eating innings so that he
can throw the rest of his staff at the Bite in games 2 and potentially 3.
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| David Welch |
Why
Adelaide will win:
Because they’ve got an edge and they’re hungry. The
Bite are riding a solid wave of momentum after pounding Melbourne at home in
the minor semi final and winning 7 of their last 8 games. Momentum can be a
powerful force, especially during the playoffs (and if anyone doubts that, take
a look at the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers who both ended up in the
World Series despite being severe underdogs entering the playoffs). Numerous
readers have commented that the Bite just appear determined and edgy. It’s
obvious that they can taste a championship and will do what it takes to achieve
that goal (and yes, don’t be surprised if we see some physical fireworks) which
means we will see some boys selling out physically to win ball games which
makes for compelling viewing.
Why
Adelaide will win:
The Bite bang the ball around the yard. With James
McOwen in the 3 hole and Quincy Latimore in the clean up position the Adelaide
team has some serious punch. Stefan Welch finally seems to have found some form
with the bat and with Jeremy Cresswell leading off, the Bite have runners on
board in front of their boppers. Brandon Bantz and Tom Brice have both been hot
of late which means the Adelaide line up is dangerous 1-6 at the very least.
 |
| A frequently occurring event for the Bite offensively |
Why
Sydney will lose:
They just can’t hit. Ok, that’s a bit hard but why
beat around the bush? Mitch Denning got it going against Perth (4-7), which is
absolutely critical to the cause but the Blue Sox need Alex Johnson supplying
some thunder and more importantly Trent D’Antonio and Trent Schmutter have to
find a way to get on base in front of these two. After the top four it’s all
question marks although Brendan Kingman has managed to run into a couple of
balls for clutch homeruns. If Dening or Johnson can be shut down, the Defensive
Specialist doesn’t see anyone else shouldering the burden.
 |
| Holy white man line beard! |
Why
Adelaide will lose:
Inconsistency in the starting pitching. Brandon Maurer
really found his groove late in the year and despite not having his best stuff
in his first play off appearance still managed to punch out 8 in 6 innings
while giving up 3 runs. Mark Brackman will take the ball in game 1 and the big
man will need to replicate his performance against Melbourne, especially when
you consider that he’s going up against the miserly Welch. Knowing that his
opponent wont give up many, Brackman will need to be dialled in and prepared to
keep the Blue Sox to 2 runs or less. After those two, Manager Tony Harris has a
quandary – does he use Paul Mildren (who’s been buried on the shelf for 2 weeks
after a poor outing against Brisbane on January 20th) or Dushan
Ruzic (who could be a weapon out of the pen, especially against righties)
should a game 3 start eventuate? The Bite pitching has been up and down this
season and the worse case scenario for their skipper is a bumpy outing from a
starter that forces the pen into action early in the series.
Why
Sydney will win:
Home field advantage! Ok, so that was a cheap shot.
Aside from being swept in the first round of the playoffs at home, the crowd support
was less than optimal with large sections of the seating area empty for game 1
last week. Adelaide reportedly had 3000 people at their 2nd playoff
game while Sydney struggled to crack 1000. Without rapid home support, the
Adelaide momentum will be allowed to run unchecked.
Why
Adelaide will lose:
Good pitching beats good hitting. If the Blue Sox
staff performs at its expected level they’re a tough group of arms to
contest. Remember a few weeks back
when the Blue Sox shut down the Bite in 4 games (granted Latimore and McOwen
were missing). If the Bite can’t manufacture runs early and grind it out
they’ll face a tough challenge offensively because Williams can employ the
lights out and rubber armed Dae Song Koo to close things out.
Why
Sydney will win:
They’re the regular season league leaders who pulled
Adelaide’s pants down in their last meeting. The Blue Sox finished in first
place for a reason and may relish the fact that they enter this series as
underdogs with the vast majority of baseball fans jumping on the Bite bandwagon
for this preliminary final. The underwhelming expectations for the team may
lift some of the pressure and allow them to play better baseball. Stranger
things have happened!
So does the Defensive Specialist have his money right?
Adelaide momentum + big bats Vs Sydney pitching + home field advantage. In the
Defensive Specialist’s esteemed opinion, Adelaide wants it too much and will
take the series convincingly, setting up a grand final contest between the Heat
and the Bite.
(Sydney fans now rejoice and start wagering heavily on
their team to win!)
The Blue Sox seem to bounce back from a losing series. When they were swept by Perth at home the Blue Sox then put the sweep through Adelaide. Will history repeat itself? The Blue Sox finished first because they know how to turn around losing form. It might be a bit harder without Chris Oxspring though, and Adelaide having all their big guns loaded. Nicholas R.W. Henning - Australian Baseball Author
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